EUR/JPY Reaching a Breaking Point

By: Doug Rosen

I am going to skip the weekly chart for this pair once again and go straight to the daily.  This paid does have bullish energy behind it, but, it is at a 50.0 fib level of the recent move down, up against a 55 ema and a trend line as well as a stochastics in the overbought zone.

 EUR/JPY Daily Analysis, October 14, 2011

Looks very familiar if you compare it to the EUR/USD but then again, why shouldn't it?  I think the USD today is a bit stronger than the JPY and I think the EUR will be stronger than the USD so if the USD is stronger than the JPY and the EUR is stronger than the USD then the EUR will be much stronger than the JPY so I am going to watch for this daily trend line and 55 ema to get busted. 

 EUR/JPY 4hour Analysis, October 14, 2011

Moving over to the 4 hour chart we are successively climbing up an ascending trend line but up against a monthly R2 so I expect a problem there, yet the 5 ema wants to cross above the 233.  We will have to see how that will play out. 

 EUR/JPY 1hour Analysis, October 14, 2011

Moving onward tot he hourly chart, the upper Bollinger band is open an pointing up with the 5 ema just below price action.  Seems that price is against the daily M3, this may cause some pause but once broken energy will build up and price should take off to the upside witht he next area of resistance around 106.48. 

On the 15 minute chart we have been making higher highs and higher lows so I will maintain a bullish attitute for this pair yet I would only trade it with extreme caution.

Doug Rosen
Doug Rosen is a Florida-based Forex trader who became a skilled technical trader through 3 years of intense practice and self-teaching. He now coaches a live trading room and analyzes the market on forextradeplans.com.