By: Doug Rosen
This pair appears to be in the beginning of a breakout if watching it on a Weekly chart. It has busted and retested the weekly Trend line, has busted the weekly 55 ema with the lower Bollinger Band pointing down, the 5 ema is crossing the other ema's and stochastics has crossed downward.
Observing the Daily we are trapped in a range and since we have had a bearish week and it is Friday I expect profit taking which should cause some spikes to the upside.
On the daily chart Stochastics is in the oversold zone and price is at a distance from its ema's I think there will be a bit of a bounce to the upside. We are entering the NY session bouncing off the Monthly M1, we are right on the Weekly S2 and have just bounced above the Daily M2.
The market is still looking very bearish but anything can happen with Friday profit taking. If price breaks the 1.5983 region I will expect it to go to the 1.6 then bounce back down to 1.5983 where I would look to take a long.
I would set my stop just below 1.5974 On the other hand, we are also making a fib of the recent drop and price could continue to move down. If it falls I would watch for it to break 1.5934 go down to 1.5912, bounce up then retest 1.5934 then I would look at shorts with a tight stop loss.