By: Doug Rosen
The EUR/USD is basically the opposite of the USD/CHF. They are reciprocals of each other. Looking at the weekly chart it is obvious that this pair has been very bearish but this week's weekly candle is precisely bouncing off the 50.0 fib level of the recent move up as did last week's weekly candle. the 50.0 Fib level is a very powerful level. Bullish action is not out of the question. Moving over to the daily chart I can see that yesterdays daily candle did close red but has a very long lower wick the result of the touch of the 50.0 fib level I mentioned earlier. Stochastics is in the oversold zone beginning to cross up. Price is still below the monthly S3 and the weekly central pivot point but has already bounced off the daily central pivot point, has already breached yesterdays high the pulled back but looks like its ready to take another crack at it.
Looking at the 4 hour chart I see we are moving up but we are approaching a descending trend line that has been respected three or four times already and it is overlapped with the upper Bollinger Band. Looking at the hourly chart the ema's are braiding, the sign of no speed or momentum and price is just below the 144 ema which overlaps with the weekly central pivot point and this level appears to be a very strong area of visual resistance.
Moving over to the 15 minute chart it is obvious to me that price has been making a series of higher highs and higher lows and the ema's are below price but are still braided together, once again, a sign that price isn't really going anywhere but I must point out that we are still just below yesterdays high which is just a few pips above the daily M3 at around 1.3550 which is very close to the weekly central overlapped with the hourly 144 ema which also coincides with the descending trend line. On top of all that the 15 minute Bollinger band is pointing down and closing in on price. Taking all this in consideration we are up against very strong resistance. It will not be easy to break all this resistance. I would be more open to shorting this pair than longing it if given the choice. The only thing that would get me into a long would be a break above 1.3605 then a retest back to the break then some sign of green with a tight stop loss. If I was to consider a short I would set take it off of a resistance area such as a pivot point or ema wait for red then set a tight stop loss.
