EUR/USD reached our ST 4th channel extension target at 1.3945 overnight, bottoming at 1.3936. This should complete the ST down-cycle, and the angled gray cycle shown also completed four channels at that level, reinforcing the validity of the bottom. Whether we merely correct the ST down-cycle now or begin a new MT up-cycle remains to be seen, as we have conflicting signals in the LT. There is important support at 1.3750, and we have possibly already corrected two LT channels down, leaving open the possibility of a LT bottom here. In the ST, resistance is at 1.4052 and 1.4086, and support is at 1.3992 and 1.3961.
USD/JPY Rally Increases Chance of Bottom
USD/JPY rallied above the 90.10 resistance level, but the 90.55 resistance has held for now. As mentioned yesterday, the rally off LT support at 89.13 has put into question continuation of the MT down-cycle (purple). A ST up-cycle has been identified (light blue), and we have completed three channels with 4th channel target at 90.97 and 4th channel extension at 91.14. The 91.14 level is also the bottom of the purple cycle’s 2nd channel, increasing the importance of holding there. ST support is at 90.09 and 89.86.
