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The FOMC's 3-member dissenting vote to raise rates last week was seen as a hawkish tilt as the members have acted as a bloc. One of the members, Kashkari, has stated that the new tariffs emerging between the USA and Canada could extend inflation in the USA, which would logically boost the case for a rate hike. The impact of the new tariffs has already caused the Canadian Dollar to become the weakest major currency since this week's FX market opened.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent has announced today is an "economic D-Day" against Iran, with the US moving to impose the toughest sanctions ever on Iran, and to hit countries that continue to do business with Iran. It remains to be seen how this will play out and whether it will affect markets at all. It is worth noting that WTI Crude Oil remains held by a descending price channel, which looks bearish for Iran's prospects of using crude oil as a weapon.
Sugar futures took a break to consolidate last Friday after reaching a new long-term high price Thursday. Trend traders will be long here. If Sugar futures are too large for retail traders, they may get exposure through an ETF like CANE which is more affordable, or even over the shorter term with a Sugar CFD. Agricultural commodities - softs - look generally strong, with several close to breaking out to fresh long-term high prices.
Gold has continued to rise firmly to reach its highest level in more than two and a half months. The combination of a sharply weaker US Dollar and falling long-term Treasury yields is bullish for gold, and the metal will be watched closely by trend traders on the long side, although strict trend followers will remain on the sidelines.
Bitcoin continues its bullish consolidation above $75,000.
In the Forex market, the Canadian Dollar is the weakest major currency since yesterday’s London open while the Euro is the strongest. The GBP/USD currency pair briefly traded at a new 6-month high towards the end of last week, although it has retraced a bit since then.