The oil markets are waking up overnight, as the Iranians have attacked a US base. The Federal Reserve rate decision is in focus, and earnings season is in full swing.
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Crude Oil rallies again overnight, as it has been announced by CENTCOM that IRGC forces have launched multiple missiles at a US base in Jordan. The oil markets have reversed hard as a result, gaining over 5% quickly, snapping a three-day decline.
The Federal Reserve will be in focus on Wednesday, as traders are giving the Fed a roughly 40% chance of a surprise interest rate hike. This is an announcement that will surprise a significant number of traders one way or the other. There will be no SEP or dot plot this meeting, and Gov. Warsh has committed to minimal forward guidance.
Microchips continue to see losses, with the Kospi being “ground zero” for the selling. This has been felt in various names such as Samsung, SK Hynix, Intel, and Nvidia. This has continued to put pressure on the NASDAQ 100 as of late, which is slumping overnight in reaction to the news coming out of the Middle East as well.
In the forex markets, the US Dollar continues to be a winner overall, especially in the USD/JPY pair, where the interest rate differential continues to play out, and we find ourselves at levels not seen since the mid-1980s. The USD/CHF pair has also seen buying, recently clearing the 0.81 level and taking advantage of the “carry trade”.
Tech earnings will be in focus after the market close in New York, with both MSFT and META reporting. Other big names include Starbucks, Robinhood, and Chipotle in a very busy calendar.
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