Bitcoin (BTC) could be set for an extended recovery, with a key valuation metric suggesting that BTC price is entering an “undervaluation zone,” according to crypto analysts.
Bitcoin’s MVRV Metric Sends a Bottoming Signal
Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, an indicator that measures whether the asset is overvalued, is currently sitting at 1.1, close to the undervaluation zone (the green area) “that has historically marked major market bottoms,” according to CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan.
“From a cycle perspective, the current price can already be considered sufficiently cheap,” the analyst said in a recent Quicktake post, adding:
“If Bitcoin were to drop further into the low $50,000, the MVRV would likely reach 1.0 — a level of full undervaluation.”
Bitcoin MVRV ratio. Source: CryptoQuant
The chart above reveals that this zone has appeared at the bottom of every major bear cycle in 2015, 2019, and 2022, and each time it marked the starting point of a strong long-term recovery.
The last time the BTC/USD pair recovered from the undervaluation zone was after the 2022 bear market bottom at $15,500, paving the way for a 375% rally to its previous all-time high of $74,000, reached in March 2024. The gains were 330% and 12,500% after the 2019 and 2015 market bottoms, respectively.
“Bitcoin just entered the accumulation zone" at the $60,000 range, analyst Alex Mason said in a Monday post on X, adding:
“This is where I said I would start buying heavily.”
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: X/Alex Mason
The analyst, however, warned that the market hasn’t reached the historical timing zone for the final bottom, adding that he expects the macro low to be reached in Autumn this year.
Analysing Bitcoin’s MVRV pricing bands, fellow analyst Ali Martinez said that “the premier accumulation windows mature when $BTC settles within the 1.0-0.8 MVRV bands,” adding:
“These levels align at $53,900 and $43,150.”
Bitcoin MVRV pricing bands. Source: Glassnode
This suggests there is still room for a stronger correction before we see any aggressive buying or euphoria.
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Bitcoin Analysts Say BTC is “Entering Bottoming Zone”
As DailyForex reported, analysts say Bitcoin is at a make or break point as it retests the 200-week moving average at $62,000, with decreasing chances of a drop below $60,000.
Holding above this range could confirm the bottom, while a break below it could trigger a fresh sell-off toward $40,000-$50.000.
Analyst El_crypto_prof argues that BTC’s retest of a multi-year uptrend line on the higher time frames marks a structural shift from bearish dominance, reinforced by support from the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), as shown in the chart below.
“This trend line for $BTC has marked every major bottom over the last 9 years,” the analyst said in a June 5 post on X, adding:
“Bitcoin has touched this trend line again after 4 years,” suggesting that the 2026 bottom could be in.
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView
Note that a convergence of support from the multi-year trend line and the 200-day SMA preceded a 344% rally in 2019 and nearly 1,600% gains between 2020 and 2021.
A bounce of the trendline after the 2022 market bottom produced 100% BTC price gains, while a bottom below the 200-week SMA in late 2023 paved the way for an over 190% rally.
The BTC/USD is also retesting a confluence of support from these two trend lines, and a successful rebound could mark the macro bottom for Bitcoin.
“Bitcoin is entering the bottoming zone,” analyst Mister Crypto said in a video posted on X, analysing Bitcoin’s price action on multiple time frames.
Fellow analyst BitcoinHyper pointed out that Bitcoin’s monthly RSI was “moving closer to the trendline that has marked every previous bear market bottom.”
BTC/USD monthly chart. Source: X/BitcoinHyper
Will Strategy’s $100 Million BTC Purchase Drive the Price Higher?
Michael Saylor’s Strategy purchased 1,550 Bitcoin for approximately $101.3 million last week, bringing its total holdings to 845,256 BTC.
The company paid an average price of $65,332 per Bitcoin for the acquisition, according to a Monday 8-K filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Strategy's aggregate Bitcoin holdings were acquired at an average price of $75,680 per BTC, for a total cost of about $63.97 billion.
Strategy now holds 845,256 BTC. At Bitcoin’s current price of about $63,600, its holdings are worth roughly $53.8 billion.
Strategy adds 1,550 BTC. Source: X/Michael Saylor
This purchase follows its controversial sale of 32 BTC last Monday, which was its first since 2022.
This sale spooked the market, with Bitcoin price falling as much as 21%, briefly retesting $61,000 for the first time in four months, and sparking heavy criticism from traders who warned of a potential “doom loop” if the firm were ever forced to sell reserves.
Strategy’s strategy remains bullish long-term by removing supply into cold storage, but individual $100 million purchases are now routine occurrences that barely move the market. Broader catalysts like regulation, adoption, or halvings matter far more.
We hope you enjoyed reading our analysis of what’s going behind the scenes with Bitcoin. If you’d like to trade with one of the best crypto brokers, check out our list.