President Trump's extension of his ceasefire deadline helped US stock markets rise to new highs in the tech sector as expressed by the advance of the NASDAQ 100 Index.
- The major item driving macro perception and sentiment remains the ongoing USA / Iran war. President Trump unilaterally extended the ceasefire without giving a deadline, implying that the Iranian leadership was divided and needed more time to come up with a "unified" negotiating position. Iran is still showing no public signs of agreeing with Trump's demands or even that it will attend talks, with the venue in Pakistan ready and waiting. Israeli media has reported that the Israeli government was told privately the deadline is Sunday, at which point war may resume. Both Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon have declared they are not bound by the ceasefire. The US blockade of Iranian port continues successfully, but the Iranians are also successfully blocking the Strait of Hormuz and seized two boats attempting to transit yesterday.
- Prediction markets are expecting a USA / Iran peace deal by the end of June but do not expect the USA to obtain Iran's enriched uranium by the end of 2026.
- Trend traders will be long of several major stock market indices, notably the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500, with the latter close to its all-time high price.
- Crude oil is rising slightly again, but the bid is quite weak. Gasoline prices in the USA remain high, with the Gasoline ETF UGA yesterday making its highest closing price in a long time. Trend traders will also likely want to be long of this. There is good reason to see there are going to be crude oil supply issues persisting despite attempts to suppress the price. A leaked Pentagon report yesterday suggested it would take six months to clear the Strait of Hormuz of mines the Iranian government has planted there.
- Bitcoin is in focus today after making its highest price since January yesterday. It looks like the bullish breakout is finally happening decisively, so traders might want to get involved on the long side here.
- The Forex market was relatively quiet during the Asian session. The USD/JPY currency pair is rising again after finding support below ¥158. Many trend traders will still be long of USD/JPY.
- Gold and Silver are still moving lower after making a bearish turn.
- There will be releases today of German and British Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI data.