Optimism continues to blossom over the prospects for a peace deal between the USA and Iran, sending stocks firmly higher and energies notably lower.
- The big news today is the same as yesterday's - a more bullish and optimistic market, which is seeing major stock indices rising strongly to reach new all-time highs overall, and in particular cases (the S&P 500 Index is trading well above 7,000 and making new record highs). It seems clear that this is being driven by increasing optimism in the market about the prospect of a US/Iran deal to end the war, and a permanent deal to end the war is likely to happen in May. The existing ceasefire expires next Tuesday. A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is strongly expected before the end of April, and is likely to happen within the next week or so following the first high-level meetings between Israel and Lebanon in decades.
- Day trading S&P 500 futures or other contracts on the long side could be interesting today.
- Optimism over the prospects of a deal has been boosted by the leaking of a report by the Central Bank of Iran detailing the economic devastation caused by the war, plus the ongoing US blockade of Iranian ports. The picture painted is so bleak, the report estimates it will take Iran 12 years to recover, suggesting a deal for Iran is becoming essential. It is likely there will be a further meeting between the USA and Iran in Pakistan fairly soon.
- Despite stock markets roaring higher, Crude Oil seems to have found some support, with WTI picking up a bid below $90 per barrel, suggesting the price of crude is finding some support.
- Gold and Silver are looking weakly bullish, with Silver trading above $80 and Gold above $4,800.
- Bitcoin is again looking bullish and threatening to continue its bullish breakout beyond $75,000, in line with prevailing risk-on sentiment.
- In the Forex market, the Australian Dollar has been the strongest major currency since today's Tokyo open, while the Swiss Franc has been the weakest - the same situation as yesterday. Ironically, this is the best "carry trade" involving major currencies. The USD/JPY currency pair is taking another bearish turn as it again fails to make a significant new high. Trend traders will still be long of USD/JPY in many cases although its hard to feel very optimistic about that trade.
- Yesterday's release of Australian Unemployment Rate data showed the rate staying at 4.3% as was widely expected.
- UK GDP data came in higher than expected, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% while only 0.1% was forecasted. This might be boosting the British Pound a little.