Markets are mostly unconvinced by President Trump's expressed hope for a peace deal with Iran by next week.
- Markets were surprised yesterday by President Trump's sudden announcement yesterday that he was suspending his 48 hour deadline for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, after earlier promising attacks on power stations if Iran did not comply, for a further 5 days, during which he hoped a peace deal would be agreed. Trump further stated the USA was already talking to leadership in Iran (but not the Supreme Leader). Iran officially denied this account and continues to do so. Markets initially showed strong reversals, with the price of WTI Crude Oil falling by as much as 10%, and the S&P 500 Index immediately rose by 200 points. However, with hours passing and no positive signs forthcoming from Iran, these and other assets are again reverting to trend.
- Prediction markets continue to show that the war is expected to last until the second half of April, and that America is expected to use ground troops on Iranian territory in some format.
- Crude Oil saw sharp falls, with WTI trading below $85 just after Trump's announcement yesterday after exceeding $100 earlier in the day. The price has rebounded firmly and at the time of writing was trading near $92.
- Stock markets are mostly falling again, with the S&P 500 Index trading back below its 200-day moving average and approaching the big round number at 6,500.
- Gold fell sharply yesterday to trade near $4,100 at a 4-month low price, and it continues to look like heading lower again, while Silver performed similarly but is showing even more bearish price action. Short precious metals could work as a very short-term trade for experienced traders, but will probably be a dangerous trade for newer traders.
- In the Forex market, the strongest major currencies since today's Tokyo open have been the British Pound and the Japanese Yen, while the weakest has been the Australian Dollar, putting the risk barometer currency cross AUD/JPY in focus. The USD/JPY currency pair lost quite a lot of ground following Trump's surprise announcement yesterday, but has regained some of those losses in recent hours to trade near
- There will be releases of Flash PMI Services and Marketing data for the USA, Germany, and the UK today.
- Commodities are mostly weaker.