Forex Today: Markets Await Central Bank Bonanza

Three major central bank meetings were held yesterday, and three more are being held today.

1. The US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of Canada all held policy meetings within the last 24 hours. All held their interest rates steady, as widely expected. The major takeaways were:
   1. The US Federal Reserve forecasts it will make a single rate cut later this year of 0.25%, but markets are pricing in no cuts within this time frame, creating an interesting divergence and a minor lack of credibility for the Fed. This is a hawkish hold, with the forecasts making note of potential inflationary pressures from elevated crude oil prices. The US Dollar gained moderately following the meeting.
   2. The Bank of Canada had a neutral, perhaps slightly hawkish effect, by also highlighting potential inflationary pressure. The Loonie barely reacted to the meeting.
   3. The Bank of Japan made a hawkish hold, leaving its interest rate unchanged but with a clear tightening bias, also highlighting potential new inflationary pressures. Japan gets over 90% of its crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite that, the Japanese Yen is a little weaker, with many analysts now looking for the USD/JPY to break above the big round number at ¥160.
2. There will be policy meetings today at the Swiss National Bank, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England. They are all expected to hold their interest rates.
3. The war in the middle east approaches the start of its fourth week. Recent hours saw an Iranian attack on Qatar's premier LNG (liquid natural gas) facility, which is now offline and likely to remain so. President Trump responded by threatening to destroy Iran's Pars gas facility, which was attacked yesterday by Israel. It is clear Trump is extremely reluctant to get into an all-out war on energy infrastructure. Although WTI Crude Oil is still below $100, it is showing muted but bullish price action, yet it is Brent Crude Oil which is far more affected, and we see this trading near its long-term high and looking bullish.
4. It has been a bad day for stock markets, with most firmly lower, as analysts begin to fret more about the delayed effect of the war feeding into the economy. The S&P 500 Index is looking weak, and is not far from testing its 2026 low.
5. n the Forex market, the strongest major currency since today's Tokyo open has been the New Zealand Dollar, while the weakest has been the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY currency pair is holding up after making a new long-term high price yesterday, but has not yet tested the big round number at 160, although it looks increasingly likely that this will happen soon.
6. Precious metals are continuing to sell off, with spot Gold trading close to the round number at $4,800 earlier today, and spot Silver trading below $75.
7. A commodity which has recently made new highs is Wheat, which can be traded in large-sized futures or as a more affordable ETF (WEAT).
8. Bitcoin is looking bearish again, as it continues to fall with solid bearish momentum, pushing the price down towards the round number at $70,000.
9. Apart from the central bank policy meetings, there will be releases of US and UK Unemployment Claims data.