Forex Today: Crude Oil Remains Subdued Despite Oil, Infrastructure Threats

WTI Crude Oil is failing to get established above $95 as Iran does everything it can to push the price higher.

1. The US/Israel vs Iran war continues into its 12^th day and has now lasted for longer than the Israel/Iran war in June 2025. It is becoming clear that Iran hopes to force an end to the war by pushing the price of oil up to prices which will cause great pain to the world economy and by extension the USA, which would in turn put huge pressure on President Trump to end the war. Trum has begun to openly hint that the end of the war is in sight, but he also signals that the war is not done yet and the US and Israel have more to do - he has already signaled that the war will last at least until the end of next week. Iran targeted an oil facility in Oman yesterday and is now threatening an "infrastructure war" where it will attempt to target giant tech companies, presumably mostly based in Israel. Iran also has reportedly mined the Strait of Hormuz, which is seeing almost no traffic anyway and has been effectively shut for days.
2. The outlook for Crude Oil is volatile, as its price will depend greatly on what happens next in this war. Trading spot crude oil right now is dangerous and unpredictable, although some trend traders might still be long of it. The recent price action is suggesting bullishness, but it keeps getting sold as it approaches $100. The big oil reserves released by G7 nations is helping to suppress the price, it seems.
3. There is a huge amount of disinformation on social media alleging that the US has suffered heavy casualties and that Tel Aviv in Israel has suffered very extensive damage from Iranian missiles. Both allegations are completely untrue. Iran struggles to fire even a few ballistic missiles at Israel, with its rate of fire down by about 90%, and for some days now is firing cluster bombs as they are much harder to intercept. The firing is usually clearly at civilian areas, which is a serious war crime on Iran's part. However, the cluster missiles cause little damage, and casualties in Israel total no more than about 12 persons over the entire war. It is unclear how Iran will have the means to target the companies in Israel as it just does not have a reliable means to do that.
4. Recent hours have seen a heavy exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah, with Hezbollah firing over 150 rockets at Israel and Israel heavily bombing Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut. Israel is now considering targeting the Lebanese state as it has proved unable to rein in Hezbollah, so an escalation in Lebanon is very possible.
5. Yesterday saw the release of US CPI data which came in exactly as expected, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and an unchanged annualized rate of 2.4%, slightly above the Fed's higher end target of 2%.
6. Stock markets are mostly lower today all over the world, although not by a lot. There is a worried and somewhat bearish mood which is being fanned by fears over what the war might do to the global economy.
7. In the Forex market, the strongest major currency since today's Tokyo open has been the Canadian Dollar, while the weakest has again been the Swiss Franc. However, the Forex market had a relatively quiet Asian session.
8. Wheat futures made a strong bullish breakout earlier this week, reaching a new 1.5-year high price, Trend traders mostly went long of wheat . If you want to do that but can't afford the expensive Wheat futures, there is a Wheat ETF called WEAT that could give you exposure to the grain. Soybeans are making a bullish breakout right now to near 2-year high prices and will also be attracting the interest of trend traders. This also has a more affordable ETF than the large futures contract called SOYB.
9. There will be a release of US Unemployment Claims data today.