Forex Today: WTI Crude Oil >$76 as Hormuz Traffic Halts

Traffic has now completely halted at the Strait of Hormuz, putting upwards pressure on Crude Oil which continues to rise towards multi-month highs.

1. The US/Israel war against Iran is continuing to rage. It is clear that things are going well for the US/Israeli side. It is also clear that Iran has focused much of its war activity on hitting countries nearby with US bases such as the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia where Iran can probably do more damage more easily than in Israel, which continues to take fire from Iran, although the war damage in Israel is minimal so far. The aspect of the war that is most disrupting markets is the bottleneck that Iran has succeeded in placing over the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic has now reportedly completely halted, and major insurers are telling their tankers not to cross. Iran claims it has complete control the Strait while the US states that it will escort oil tankers through. There has also been some minor damage to oil infrastructure on both sides of the way The situation is interfering with supply and helping push up the price of crude oil, but that may change if the US navy goes in and forcibly fully reopens the Strait. Here is how certain key assets in the market are behaving right now:
   1. WTI Crude Oil - after reaching a new multi-month high price yesterday just below $78, this morning the price action again looks bullish, and the price is rising to new short-term highs above $76. It is possible that the price may continue to rise and even make a new 6-month high later. However, this is likely to be determined by whatever happens at the Strait and also whether there is any more damage to oil infrastructure.
   2. Gasoline - futures in the US again advanced to a new 7-month high, and the price action is looking bullish over the short-term. President Trump will be sensitive to domestic Gasoline prices and will do what he can to keep energy production out of the war, which likely includes a swift move to unblock the Strait.
   3. Gold - this dropped strongly yesterday, with the low touching the round number at $5,000. Gold is looking much weaker than it did 24 hours ago.
   4. Asian Stock Markets - Asian equity indices fell strongly, with the Korean stock market seeing its largest 1-day drop in value since 2008. Both the Japanese Nikkei 225 Index and the Chinese HSI were ending the day down by more than 2.5%.
2. Following Qatar's closure of its LNG (liquid natural gas) production earlier this week after successful Iranian attacks on its key natural gas facilities, this is pushing up the price in the Middle East and Europe. The impact in Europe is starting to put pressure on the Euro in the Forex market.
3. Bitcoin continues to look bearish below the intermediate resistance level at $70,182 and the key resistance level above that at $71,762 although the basic ranging consolidation pattern is continuing. It may be that the recent low we saw near the support at $61,229 will become very crucial, as if that level breaks down, the price could fall to $50,000 or even lower.
4. In the Forex market, the strongest major currency since today's Tokyo open has been the Japanese Yen, while the weakest has been the Australian Dollar. This puts the key risk barometer Forex cross, the AUD/JPY, in view.
5. Australian GDP data released earlier today was higher than was widely expected, with quarterly growth at 0.8%, beating the estimated 0.5% growth. This seems to be having no real effect on the Aussie.
6. The UK Government gave its Spring Budget Statement yesterday. It seemed to have no real effect on the British Pound, which is relatively weak for other reasons.