Friday's US Supreme Court judgment striking down President Trump's "liberation day" tariffs has triggered a new global 15% tariff, sending US assets lower.
- Last Friday, the US Supreme Court ruled that some of the tariffs imposed last year by President Trump were unlawful insofar as he lacked the constitutional power to impose them. President Trump responded by announcing that he would impose a new 10% tariff on all imports, stating later that in fact it would be 15%, raising the question of what will happen to imports from countries such as Australia and the UK, which have already agreed 10% tariff deals with the USA. The situation is causing uncertainty and confusion and has sent the US stock market and US Dollar lower, as well as broadly hitting risk assets. However, the drops are not especially large.
- Speculation over the huge US military buildup against Iran continues. The two parties will meet for talks in Geneva on Thursday, but the prediction market Polymarket suggests a 31% probability of a US attack on Iran within 10 days, and a probably attack within the second half of March, possibly coinciding with the end of the Muslim holiday of Ramadan. The price of WTI Crude Oil gained to touch a new 6-month high last week but has since pulled back a bit. If there is a bullish breakout to fresh highs, trend traders will want to be long, but it could be a sudden and dramatic spike higher than would flop quickly, meaning a tight stop loss once war breaks out, at least on closing prices, could be the best strategy.
- Stock markets and other risky assets have mostly moved lower, and not only in the USA.
- Precious metals are gaining, with Silver making the strongest advance, and Gold trading well above $5,100. Gold is trading at its highest price since its huge drop ended at the start of this month.
- Bitcoin is threatening but so far failing to break below the key support level at $65,786. If it does break down decisively below this level, the next support to watch is at $61,229 which would probably be extremely decisive.
- In the Forex market, the strongest major currency since today's Tokyo open has been the British Pound, while the weakest has been the Australian Dollar. The US Dollar has dropped since today's market opening in Asia. The Forex market may be tricky to navigate this week with potential twists and turns in the US tariff story.
- There are no high-impact economic data releases due today.