Gold is trading above $5,000 and has recovered almost half of its extreme loss since last Thursday.
- Precious metals have continued to recover after their recent extreme selloffs, with the notably top performer being Gold. Gold has almost reached a point where it will regain half of its loss since last Thursday - this point would sit at about $5,100. Traders who believe in 50% retracements within strong swings as good trade entry opportunities might want to try to short Gold if it rejects $5,100 soon. It is notable that Gold is performing much better than all other precious metals, so if you are going to invest in one of them, Gold now looks like the best choice. However, I do not see Gold continuing to climb right back up to test last week's record high near $5,600 any time soon. Gold and other precious metals will likely make wide swings up and down on decreasing volatility, like a tuning fork slowly going quiet.
- Stock markets in the USA and parts of Asia have fallen on a tech selloff. After the S&P 500 Index touched 7,000 it fell by more than 100 points, the NASDAQ 100 Index closed more than 1.5% lower, However, both indices are rising on off-hours trading today, especially the S&P 500, and the KOSPI Composite Index has risen to reach another record high. We still see bull markets, its just that the US markets seems to be running out of bullish momentum.
- There is a lot of news about renewed tensions between the USA and Iran boosting the price of crude oil, which I do not subscribe to at all. The US just shot down a couple of Iranian drones over the Gulf. What is actually going on looks more like a climbdown by the USA, which has apparently just agreed to Iran's demand to move Friday's talks from Turkey to Oman, and to relegate other countries to observers. It starts to look as if Trump may agree to some kind of nuclear deal where the Islamic Republic of Iran just basically holds back a bit, at least cosmetically, during the remaining 3 years of the Trump presidency, in the hope that future US Presidents will be weaker on the issue. Prediction markets are now seeing a US strike on Iran as unlikely. On the other hand, it may be that President Trump wants Iran to be seen to reject a seemingly reasonable deal before launching a strike, so it goes down better with the American public. If I am correct about no US strike, this is bearish for crude oil, but it may open the way to another war between Israel and Iran later in 2026.
- Bitcoin fell strongly yesterday to break the forming bullish double bottom by reaching a new 1-year low price below $73,000.Something is off with Bitcoin and the crypto sector. If I wanted to buy here, I would sit on the sidelines and keep watching and waiting for the time being. I am not short but I think Bitcoin has a bearish outlook and will probably fall even further, possibly even to the $50,000 area.
- In the Forex market, since today's Tokyo open, the strongest major currency has been the British Pound, while the weakest is the Japanese Yen, putting the GBP/JPY currency cross in focus. This has historically tended not to trend reliably, but has been in a strong bullish trend since November. The pair I see most suitable for day trading is the AUD/USD on the long side.
- Yesterday saw the New Zealand Unemployment Rate unexpectedly tick slightly higher, from 5.3% to 5.4%.
- There may be data releases today of US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change & ISM Services PMI.