Forex Today: Australian Inflation Drops Unexpectedly

Australian CPI shows a stronger than expected drop in its annualized rate, boosting the Aussie.

1. The release of Australian CPI (inflation) data brought a surprise earlier today, with the annualized rate expected to fall from 3.8% to 3.6%, but actually falling more strongly to 3.4%. Counter-intuitively, this is acting to boost the Australian Dollar, even as risk sentiment takes a bit of a dip today - the two are often positively correlated. The AUD/USD currency pair is rising to a new 1-Year High and may be attracting trend traders into long positions.
2. The standout asset class is metals - both precious and industrial, with all rising yesterday, although they have all been falling over today's Asian session. The 2025 rally was about precious metals, but industrial methods are coming into greater focus. Here is the picture metal by metal:
   1. Gold - peaked at $4,500 and has now fallen back to $4,450.
   2. Silver - made a new record high closing price above $80 yesterday, which probably brought in institutional longs. I entered long with a small (half) position. It is now falling strongly and trading well below $79.
   3. Platinum - peaked around $2,450 but now falling heavily like Silver.
   4. Palladium - peaked around $1,850 but now falling heavily like Silver.
   5. Copper - futures broke to close at record high prices yesterday, so trend traders will want to be long here, even though the price is now falling strongly. CME micro futures in copper are available, sized at about $15,000. If that is too big for you, the CPER ETF could be an alternative, or your broker may offer a smaller spot contract.
   6. Aluminum - futures broke yesterday to a 3-year high price, so trend traders will want to be long here, although the price is falling. Futures contracts are large in size, but the ALUM ETF could be an alternative, or your broker may offer a smaller spot contract.
3. Stock markets are taking a dip almost everywhere, led lower by Asian markets, with the S&P 500 Index just edging to a new all-time high price yesterday.
4. In the Forex market, since today's Tokyo open, the strongest major currency has been the Australian Dollar, and the weakest has been the New Zealand Dollar. The USD/JPY currency pair has been in a technical long-term trend for quite a while, and has again begun advancing towards the ¥157 handle.
5. The price of Crude Oil is falling since President Trump announced that Venezuela will be turning over between 30 and 50 million barrels of crude to the US government to sell at market price. It is trading below $56.50 and looking quite likely to test the multi-year low not far below its current price.
6. There will be some high-impact data releases today in the USA:
   ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
   JOLTS Job Openings
   ISM Services PMI

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