Yesterday saw modest gains in major US indices, which have almost erased their losses made earlier in November.
- Despite the recent pullback and loss of momentum, we are still in a bull market in stocks. Yesterday saw major US indices rise, and all are within sight of their record highs made recently, notably the broad S&P 500 Index, which may be well-positioned to make a "Santa Claus rally" over the coming month of December.
- Bitcoin is looking more bullish after it broke through a key resistance level just above $88,000 and continued to rise to trade above the round number at $90,000.
- In the Forex market, the strongest major currency since the Tokyo open is the New Zealand Dollar, with the weakest major currency being the Swiss Franc, putting the New Zealand Dollar in focus as this is the big mover of all major currencies so far this week. It is clearly a risk-on environment in the market now. The USD/JPY currency pair again is trading above ¥156.00. Trend traders will still be long of this currency pair, although they will remain vulnerable over the short-term to potential intervention from the Bank of Japan or Japanese Government which does not want to see the Yen depreciate much further. The US Dollar is declining against its long-term bullish trend as sentiment continues to rise in favour of a December rate hike by the Fed: an 85% probability now according to the CME FedWatch tool.
- Precious metals are looking relatively strong, with spot Silver getting very close to its all-time high yesterday before pulling back, while Gold is trading above $4,100 per ounce. Gold may be about to make a bullish breakout from a narrowing triangle chart pattern, while Silver could make a new record high daily close soon. I am doubtful about the prospect for a new long trade in either if a new record high is made.
- Yesterday saw the release of the UK budget which brought several de facto tax hikes, as the UK government attempts to plug its fiscal defecit. It does not seem to have had much impact upon the British Pound.
- Yesterday's US Unemployment Claims data was slightly better than was expected.
- It is a public holiday in the US today (Thanksgiving), so market liquidity in Forex and some other asset classes might be thin during the usual US hours until Tokyo comes online.
- There are no high-impact data releases due today, so it might be a relatively quiet day in the markets (the US holiday is also a factor here).
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