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Forex Today: Markets Expecting 0.3% MoM Increase in US CPI

By Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.

Markets are closely watching the US CPI (inflation) data release due today, which is expected to show prices rising by 0.3% month-on-month.

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  1. US CPI (inflation) data due today is expected to show a month-on-month increase in prices of 0.3%. A deviation from this result will likely cause volatility in the US Dollar and in the US stock market.
  2. Global stock markets are recovering a bit today after another poor showing yesterday, mostly on Trump's downplaying the recent market selloff and promising to back down on the new 50% Canada import tariff. The USA and Canada also concluded a joint announcement that the recent Canadian surcharge of 25% on electricity exports is ending. Ukraine's announcement that it accepts a US plan for a temporary ceasefire has also helped lighten the mood.
  3. The Bank of Canada will be holding a policy meeting today and is expected to cut its Overnight Rate from 3.0% to 2.75%.
  4. Governor Ueda of the Bank of Japan made comments which were bearish for the Yen, stating that underlying Japanese inflation is still below the Bank's 2% target rate. The USD/JPY currency pair is very close to a valid long-term bearish trend after markets recently saw further capital inflows into the Yen as part of a slight to safety. The USD/JPY only requires a New York close below ¥147.26 to qualify.
  5. In the Forex market, the US Dollar has been the strongest major currency since today's Tokyo open, while the Japanese Yen has been the weakest, putting the USD/JPY in focus.
  6. Gold is holding up relatively well despite widespread strong selloffs in commodities.
  7. Bitcoin fell yesterday to trade at a new 4-month low price, but at the time of writing is struggling to break up above the pivotal new resistance level at $83,277.
  8. US JOLTS Job Openings data came in a bit stronger than expected yesterday
Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.

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