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Forex Today: Fed’s Kashkari Suggests Delaying Rate Cut to December

With a typically hawkish comment, Fed member Kashkari suggested that no rate cut should be made until December, later than the consensus forecast of September.

  1. Fed Member Kashkari stated a few hours that he sees the logical rate cut which he concedes is due in 2024 as best placed in December, as late in the year as possible. So far, the US Dollar has reacted little to this hawkish comment.
  2. In France, the general election campaign is underway, with polls suggesting the RN party, heir to the old Front National party, will secure enough votes to form a government. If polls do not change, this will likely lead to a continuing weakening of the Euro.
  3. There will be a release of US Empire State Manufacturing Index data later. Tomorrow in Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia will be holding a policy meeting at which it is expected to leave rates unchanged at 4.35%.
  4. The Indonesian Rupiah is trading at a 4-year low against the USD, but a rate hike still seems unlikely as President Widodo seems relaxed about the weak Rupiah. The price of USD/INR has made a bullish breakout above 16,300 which was the Central Bank’s former red line.
  5. It is likely to be a relatively quiet day in the markets today, as it is a Monday with little major news due.

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