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Forex Today: Euro Falls on Shock Macron Election Call

The Euro falls strongly after French President Macron called a surprise general election after his heavy defeat in yesterday’s election for the European Parliament.

  1. The Euro is trading considerably lower, falling to a new 1-month low price, following results of the European Parliament election in France which show the far-right parties polling 40% of the vote, while President Macron’s party polled only 15%. Surprisingly, President Macron has called an immediate general election, which polls suggest will likely put the far right in power in France for the first time since the second world war. Although the main far-right party no longer pushes an exit from the common currency, a victory for the far-right will put a lot of strain on the Euro and could provide an opportunity to traders to short the common currency. However, the major gains in this election have clearly gone to the more moderate right than the far right.
  2. US Average Earnings and Non-Farm Payrolls data released last Friday came in higher than expected, spooking markets into a risk-off shift in sentiment which saw the US Dollar gain and stock markets somewhat depressed. Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.4% when a month-on-month rise of only 0.3% was expected, while net new non-farm jobs reached 272k when only 180k was expected. This will dampen rate cut expectations slightly and is a bit bullish for the greenback. Stocks have mostly declined in Asia today as a result, with major US indices holding up better. The NASDAQ 100 Index is still trading above 19000.
  3. In the Forex market, the strongest major currency since the Tokyo open is the Australian Dollar, while the Euro is the weakest major currency. As the US Dollar is also gaining firmly and trading near a 1-month high price, the EUR/USD currency pair is clearly in focus.
  4. There are no major data releases scheduled today, so apart from the Euro, it will likely be a relatively quiet day in the markets.

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