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Forex Today: Market Sees 80% Chance of Fed Rate Cut in March

Last Friday’s lower-than-expected US PPI data has raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in March, leading to a rise in stocks.

  1. The release of PPI data in the US on Friday had some impact as the number was lower than expected, leading the market to reassess its opinion of the chance the Fed will begin cutting rates in March. A few days ago the CME’s FedWatch tool showed a 67% probability of a hike, now it has risen to 80%. This has boosted stock markets, with the NASDAQ 100 Index rising to reach a level only about 100 points off its all-time high made just a matter of days ago, while the Japanese Nikkei 225 Index made another new 34-year high price.
  2. The SEC’s authorisation last week of the sale of retail Bitcoin ETFs by several investment houses seems to have triggered a fall in the price of Bitcoin, which has reached as low as $42k after making a new 20-month high price just last Thursday.
  3. In the Forex market, the Euro has been the strongest major currency since the Tokyo open today. The New Zealand Dollar has been the weakest. There remains a valid long-term bullish trend in the EUR/USD currency pair. The US Dollar is still consolidating. The Japanese Yen is also weak, with its 2-year bond yield dropping below zero for the first time since July 2023, which helped the Nikkei 225 Index rise to make another 34-year high price.
  4. Cocoa futures reached new multi-year high prices last Friday, which will keep trend traders interested in this commodity on the long side. It has been exhibiting a powerful bullish trend for more than a year now.
  5. There will be a release today of UK Claimant Count Change data.

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