Forex Today: RBA Minutes Confirm Coming Rate Hikes Likely

The RBA’s meeting minutes confirm its hawkish policy tilt, having considered a 0.50% hike and expecting further rate hikes over the coming months.


  1. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting minutes confirm a more hawkish tilt in monetary policy, with the Bank having considered a 0.50% hike at its previous meeting. The minutes noted expected further hikes over the coming months and that the Cash Rate remains relatively low. Despite this, the AUD/USD currency pair is trading lower and looking bearish.
  2. Stock markets are mostly lower today. The S&P 500 Index made a golden cross the week before lastThis is typically a strong long-term buy signal, although the price has fallen since then.
  3. The US Dollar is strong and a little higher, as US treasury yields continue to climb. The 2-year treasury yield is close to its long-term high level. The Swedish Krona is the weakest major currency today.
  4. Some commodities are performing quite well, with some continuing to rise after having recently made significant bullish breakouts, notably Sugar and Cocoa.
  5. There will be a release later today of important Canadian CPI (inflation) data, which is expected to show a slight decline based upon a month-on-month change increase of 0.7%.
  6. Tomorrow brings the RBNZ’s Cash Rate and Monetary Policy Statement release.
  7. Three more minor, but significant, data releases are due today:
    • US Flash Services PMI
    • UK Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI
    • Australian Wage Price Index
  1. Daily confirmed new global coronavirus cases decreased last week for the eighth consecutive week.
  2. Total confirmed new coronavirus cases worldwide stand at over 678.8 million with an average case fatality rate of 1.00%. Daily new confirmed cases have fallen to a low level not seen since May 2020, just after the start of the pandemic.
Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.