Forex Today: Fed Expected to Hike by 0.25% Today

Markets are expecting the US Federal Reserve to raise rates by 0.25% and will closely watch the FOMC statement for clues as to the Fed’s future intentions.


  1. Stock markets have mostly continued to rally as markets await the key US Federal Reserve meeting at which the Fed is expected to hike rates by 0.25%. Close attention will be paid to the language in the FOMC Statement for clues as to whether this will likely be the last rate hike before rates are eventually cut. If markets believe the statement contains such a hint, we will likely see a firm rally in the US stock market and a further decline by the US Dollar.
  2. The S&P 500 Index is very close to making a bull cross / golden cross, with the 50-day SMA about to cross above the 200-day SMA. In this stock index, it has historically acted as an excellent long-term buy signal and may signal the start of a new bull market.
  3. In the Forex market, the US Index is consolidating after having made a bullish reversal from the support level at 101.07. We may be seeing a medium-term bullish reversal against the long-term bearish trend in the greenback. The Australian Dolar is the strongest major currencies while the Japanese Yen is currently the weakest. The EUR/USD currency pair remains within a valid long-term bullish trend after reaching within just a few pips short of $1.09 some days ago, so it is likely we will see higher prices there over the coming days.
  4. Many commodities are performing strongly and are reaching, or have recently reached, new long-term highs, such as GoldCopper, Steel, and Sugar. Trend traders may be interested in being long of these assets.
  5. There will be a release today of the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change forecast, which is expected to predict a net increase of 176k new jobs.
  6. There will be releases today of US JOLTS Job Openings and US ISM Manufacturing PMI data.
  7. The release yesterday of Canadian GDP data showed GDP increasing by 0.1% month-on-month, exactly as had been expected.
  8. The release yesterday of US CB Consumer Confidence data came in a little lower than had been expected.
  9. The release yesterday of New Zealand Unemployment data showed a small rise in the unemployment rate from 3.3% to 3.4%.
  10. Daily confirmed new global coronavirus cases decreased last week for the sixth consecutive week, but there are serious doubts over the veracity of China’s official statistics, which almost certainly dramatically understate new coronavirus cases.
  11. Total confirmed new coronavirus cases worldwide stand at over 675 million with an average case fatality rate of 1.00%. Daily new confirmed cases have fallen to a low level not seen since the summer of 2020.
Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.