Forex Today: Risk Rally on Inflation Optimism

Markets revert to risk-on mode and show gains by stocks and other risky assets ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI data release.


  1. Stocks and risk assets are rising as markets move back into risk-on mode as optimism over tomorrow’s US CPI (inflation) print takes hold. Markets are expecting annualized US inflation to decline from 7.1% to 6.5%.
  2. The long-term bullish trend in precious metals continues, with the price of spot Gold rising to an 8-month high above $1884. The price of spot Silver is also bullish, but less so. In the commodities sector, Copper has also made a bullish breakout to new multi-month highs. These assets are attractive to long-term trend traders in the long direction right now, as higher prices here are likely over the coming days.
  3. In the Forex market, we currently see more in-trend movement in the major currency pairs, especially in the EUR/USD currency pair which is just a few pips off a new 7-month high above $1.0750. The strong long-term technical trend against the US Dollar remains, with the Euro and the Aussie the strongest major currencies, while the Japanese Yen is the weakest.
  4. The price of WTI Crude Oil is falling again, as the energy commodity remains within a well-defined long-term bearish trend.
  5. Australian CPI (inflation) data released earlier today came in a fraction higher than expected, at an annualized rate of 7.3% compared to an expected 7.2%.
  6. Daily new global coronavirus cases decreased last week for the third consecutive week.  
  7. It is estimated that 69.1% of the world’s population has received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccination.
  8. Total confirmed new coronavirus cases worldwide stand at over 669.3 million with an average case fatality rate of 1.00%. 
  9. The rate of new coronavirus infections appears to now be significantly increasing only in China and Taiwan. A Chinese official in one province implied earlier this week that over 88 million people had been infected in just the past few weeks.
Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.