Forex Today: Fed to Meet After Lower Inflation Data

Risk assets are bid as US inflation comes in below expectations, but the FOMC is still expected to hike by 0.50% today.


  1. US inflation data came in lower than expected yesterday, showing a month-on-month increase of only 0.1% when 0.4% had been expected, reducing the annualized rate from 7.7% to 7.1% when 7.3% had been expected. The data boosted risk assets strongly, notably with the S&P 500 Index gapping up strongly, but much of the early gains were given up overnight. The US Dollar was sold off and remains weaker, with Silverthe EUR/USD currency pairthe GBP/USD currency pairthe AUD/USD currency pair, and the NZD/USD currency pair all making new multi-month highs. I see long Silver and long EUR/USD as valid trend trades.
  2. The Federal Reserve is meeting later today and remains widely expected to hike rates by another 0.50% to a total rate of 4.50%.
  3. There will be a release of UK CPI (inflation) data early today. Annualized inflation of 11.1% is expected to show a slight drop to 10.9%.
  4. UK unemployment data released yesterday was considerably better than had been expected, with the number declining by more than 30k instead of increasing by 3k.
  5. China’s pivot away from its previous zero covid policy is boosting demand for Crude Oil and Natural Gas, helping push up its price, although WTI Crude Oil remains not far from long-term low prices.
  6. The former CEO of FTX has been charged with a list of serious financial fraud crimes by the US federal government.
  7. Daily new global coronavirus cases rose last week for the fourth consecutive week.  
  8. It is estimated that 68.6% of the world’s population has received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccination.
  9. Total confirmed new coronavirus cases worldwide stand at over 654.8 million with an average case fatality rate of 1.02%.  
  10. The rate of new coronavirus infections appears to now be significantly increasing only in Guatemala, Japan, and New Zealand
Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.