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Forex Today: US Inflation Overshoots, Fed May Hike by 1%

Unexpectedly high and wide US CPI data increases likelihood of 1% Fed rate hike.

  • US CPI (inflation) data released yesterday showed inflation running at an annualized rate of 9.1%, higher than had been expected and a new 40-year record. The data is alarming as only slightly over half of the increase was accounted for by food and energies, both of which have suffered recent price shocks. Additionally, core CPI data also exceeded expectations. The depth of the data is increasing fears that the US Federal Reserve may place its next hike as high as 1% (supported by comments from Fed member Bostic), while odds on a 0.75% hike have increased.
  • The strong US Dollar continues to advance, causing the USD/JPY currency pair to rise to a new 23-year high above ¥138. The US Dollar remains strong across the board and is also rising firmly against the Euro and the British Pound. The EUR/USD currency pair again briefly touched and tested its parity level following the US CPI data release but bounced strongly on heavy buying at $1.0000. The bullish USD is a very strong long-term trend in the Forex market, so there is probably a good opportunity to trade the US Dollar long as the move has firm momentum. There seems to be no stopping the greenback and it is feared that its appreciation is going to hurt US corporate earnings and further knock the stock market.

  • The Japanese Yen is the weakest major currency right now. Japan’s chief cabinet secretary has expressed concern over the renewed rapid weakening in the Yen.
  • The Bank of Canada raised its Overnight Rate by 1.00%, higher than the 0.75% hike which had been widely expected. This has caused some minor strength in the Canadian Dollar.
  • Australian employment data came in much stronger than expected, with the headline unemployment rate falling from 3.9% to 3.5%, a much lower level than the 3.8% which had been expected.
  • Stock markets and commodities continue to look mostly weak on risk-off market sentiment, with Gold/USD reaching a new 1-year low yesterday.
  • There will be a release of US PPI data later today.
  • Daily new coronavirus cases globally rose again for the third consecutive week, caused by the omicron subvariant BA5.
  • It is estimated that 66.5% of the world’s population has received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccination, while approximately 7.1% of the global population is confirmed to have contracted the virus at some time, although the true number is highly likely to be much larger.  
  • Total confirmed new coronavirus cases worldwide stand at over 564.2 million with an average case fatality rate of 1.13%.  
  • The rate of new coronavirus infections appears to now be significantly increasing in Bolivia, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Honduras, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Peru, Albania, Brunei, Cyprus, France, Guatemala, Italy, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Paraguay, Switzerland, and Tunisia. 
Adam Lemon
About Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.

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