Canadian Inflation Undershoots Expectations

Adam Lemon

Canadian month on month CPI comes in lower than expected, boosting hopes that inflation in North America may be peaking.

Canadian CPI Data June 2022

Wednesday 20th July 2022 saw Statistics Canada release its latest batch of CPI (inflation) data, which showed month-on-month inflationary increase lower than the forecasted consensus. This will be seen as good news for Canada’s economy and will boost hopes that inflation may be peaking in North America. It may also decrease pressure on the Bank of Canada to hike rates strongly.

The data showed that Canadian CPI increased last month by only 0.7%, lower than the anticipated increase of 0.9%. It is notable that last month’s month-on-month increase was a high 1.4%, suggesting the current wave of inflation may have peaked.

Translated into annualized, year-on-year CPI, the data show inflation currently running at 8.1%, up from 7.7% in April. This is the highest annualized rate seen since January 1983 but is meaningfully lower than the 8.4% annualized rate which had been expected today.

Core CPI also came in much lower than had been expected, at a month-on-month increase of only 0.3% which is much lower than the 0.8% increase which had been widely forecasted.

UK CPI Data June 2022

Earlier in the day, the UK also released its latest CPI (inflation) data, which showed that the annualized rate of inflation had increased by slightly more expected, from 9.1% to 9.4%.

Core inflation fell slightly, running at an annualized rate of 5.8% as expected, compared to last month’s headline of 5.9%.

The Bank of England still expects to see UK CPI later this year as high as 11%, some analysts expect that a rate of 12% will be reached.

The UK has the highest annualized inflation of any G7 country.

Market Impact

The UK CPI data seemed to have very little impact on the British Pound or British stocks.

The Canadian CPI data has had a more notable impact, sending the Canadian Dollar lower over the first 15 minutes following the release.

The following price changes were observed in key market barometers:

  • USD/CAD                                                       -0.20%
  • CAD/JPY                                                         -0.01%
  • TSX Index                                                      +0.15%

It seems the higher-than-expected Canadian inflation data may be boosting the Canadian Dollar slightly, as the market slightly decreases its rate hike expectations.

What Does This Mean for Traders?

The key takeaway from today’s releases is to expect a weaker Canadian Dollar, but so far, the effect appears to be slight and likely to disappear soon.

Today’s inflation data is probably more interesting in terms of the general global economy rather than particularly relating to the Pound or Loonie. Despite the headline increases, Canadian inflation is showing signs of tapering off, and that will give hope that the same is about to happen in the USA as well, given how strongly integrated the US and Canadian economies are. If this turns out to be correct, it will be likely to boost US stocks and weaken the US Dollar.

Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy

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