- Stock markets are rising around the world after studies on omicron patients in South Africa and the UK suggest the variant, while considerably more infectious, has notably milder effects than previous coronavirus strains, with an estimated 30% to 70% reduction in the probability of hospitalization. This is potentially very good news for both health and economy, so stock markets and other risky assets are rising firmly as the market transitions into a firmly risk-on mode as we approach the Christmas holiday and the end of 2021.
- In the Forex market, we are seeing continued weakness in the US dollar, despite the long-term bullish trend in the US Dollar Index (USD). The strong overhead resistance at 12257 in USX has held and is pushing the price down. We are seeing weakness in the Japanese yen especially as well as the US Dollar, while the commodity currencies (NZD, AUD, and CAD) are relatively strong.
- The Turkish Lira has continued to strengthen following the Turkish government’s announced of emergency measures to support the Turkish Lira, which gives an effective guarantee against any depreciation in Lira savings should the currency’s decline against major currencies exceed the Lira’s rate of interest. The USD/TRY currency pair fell as low as 11 two days ago, a decline of 38% from a record peak made just a few hours previously. At the time of writing, USD/TRY has broken down below the former solid support at 12. There may be a short-term opportunity to trade here as it remains unclear how much impact the rescue package will have over the longer-term, but Forex brokers are imposing such high spreads (commonly more than 2%) and overnight swap rates that trading the Turkish Lira with a retail Forex broker is probably not worth the risk.
- US Final GDP data came in better than expected yesterday, showing an annualized rate of 2.3% compared to an anticipated increase of 2.1%.
- Today will bring a release of Canadian GDP data, which is expected to show a month on month increase of 0.8%.
- Last week saw the a weekly rise in new confirmed coronavirus cases globally, with the highest number being recorded in one week since last August.
- It is estimated that 57% of the world’s population has received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccination.
- Total confirmed new coronavirus cases worldwide stand at over 276.6 million with an average case fatality rate of 1.94%.
- The rate of new coronavirus infections appears to now be increasing most quickly in Australia, Bolivia, Canada, Denmark, Ethiopia, Finland, France, Iceland, Italy, Kenya, South Korea, Malta, Monaco, Nigeria, San Marino, Spain, Sweden, the USA, and the UK.
Forex Today: Good Omicron News Boosts Stocks, Risky Currencies
Adam Lemon
New studies on the omicron variant suggest it is 30% to 70% less likely to require hospital treatment than earlier coronavirus strains.