Forex Today: Turkish Lira’s Fall Continues

Adam Lemon

The Turkish lira fell by more than 10% yesterday after Erdogan’s fiery speech defending recent Turkish rate cuts.

  • The Turkish lira fell by more than 10% yesterday, with USD/TRY reaching as high as 13.50 after Erdogan made a speech painting Turkey’s currency crisis as a war for national independence against sinister speculative forces. Most Forex brokers offering USD/TRY suspended trading in the pair for some hours, and although now mostly back online, spreads have been widened as high as approximately 3% of the value of the position. We are quite likely to see some further advance in USD/TRY over the coming days, but be aware that trading this currency pair seems prohibitively expensive. It is falling with very strong momentum, currently averaging about 3% per day against the US dollar.

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  • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates by 0.25% for the second consecutive month, as had been widely expected. Overall, the RBNZ’s forecasts and measures were seen as having a slightly dovish impact despite the rate hike, with the RBNZ admitting they considered making a 0.50% hike. The release had little impact on the NZD.
  • The USD/JPY currency pair rose again yesterday to reach a new 4-year high for a second consecutive day. There is a long-term bullish trend in favor of the USD/JPY and it is likely we will see still higher prices in this currency pair over the coming days.
  • The EUR/USD continues its long-term bearish trend as it fell slightly yesterday to reach a new 1-year low price below $1.1230. Odds are in favor of lower prices here over the coming days due to the strong trend. This move is driven by enhanced euro weakness after ECB President Christine Lagarde ruled out an ECB rate hike in 2022.
  • In the Forex market, the US Dollar Index has become established above key long-term resistance, breaking out to reach a new 16-month high in a significant technical move confirming the long-term bullish USD trend. As long as the former resistance area now continues to hold as support, the technical outlook will look bullish for the US dollar.
  • The price of wheat rose strongly yesterday to close at a new multi-year high price.
  • The price of WTI Crude Oil rose strongly yesterday as the US and other nations announced they would be releasing strategic oil reserves.
  • The cryptocurrency sector is continuing to trade mostly bearishly. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are showing a series of bearish swings.
  • Last week saw the fourth consecutive global weekly rise in new confirmed coronavirus cases after two months in which cases fell steadily.
  • It is estimated that 53.4% of the world’s population has received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccination.
  • Total confirmed new coronavirus cases worldwide stand at over 259 million with an average case fatality rate of 2.00%. Cases are surging in Europe and some countries, notable Austria and the Netherlands, are implementing new lockdowns.
  • The rate of new coronavirus infections appears to now be increasing most quickly in Andorra, Austria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Jordan, South Korea, Laos, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland, Trinidad, the USA, the UK, and Vietnam.
Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy

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