- Global stock markets are mostly lower but the benchmark US S&P 500 Index closed at an all-time high yesterday above 4350.
- WTI Crude Oil fell sharply again as a “risky” asset.
- In the Forex market, the USD and JPY made firm gains, with the Japanese yen clearly the strongest major currency. The euro looks likely to be the weakest major currency as it closed yesterday at a new 50-day low, suggesting we will see still lower prices over the coming days. The Australian and Canadian dollars also look relatively weak.
- Yesterday’s release of US FOMC meeting minutes had only minor market impact. The minutes revealed little beyond more talk of tapering the asset purchase (QE) program at an earlier date than had been previously planned.
- Today will see a release of US unemployment claims data.
- Last week saw a second consecutive weekly rise in global new confirmed coronavirus cases, suggesting that the pandemic is advancing again due to the spread of the more highly infectious Delta (Indian) variant. There is increasing concern over this in some countries, notably Australia, which has begun a partial lockdown as local transmission seems to be beginning. The UK seems set to abolish almost all remaining restrictions on 19th July despite the increasing rise in new coronavirus cases there day by day. Three sporting events are being held in London this week with crowds of 60,000 – the final games of the Euro 2020 football tournament.
- It is estimated that 24.6% of the world’s population has received at least one vaccination against the novel coronavirus.
- Total confirmed new coronavirus cases worldwide stand at over 185.9 million with an average case fatality rate of 2.16%.
- The fastest progression in terms of immunizing a population against the coronavirus in all but the smallest states has been in Singapore, Iceland, Malta, Bermuda, Bahrain, Mongolia, Kuwait, Bhutan, Israel, Chile, Uruguay, and Canada, which have given at least one shot to between 83% and 63% of their respective populations. Malta is an especially interesting case as it has vaccinated more than 80% of its population and should therefore have full herd immunity by most expert estimations, although it is still registering a handful of new cases daily. For most of the world, a vaccine still remains distant. However, the pace of vaccination in the European Union, which now has immunized 53% of its population, has picked up significantly. In the U.S., 55% of the population has been vaccinated.
- New data suggests that coronavirus vaccines are only about 65% in effective in preventing infection by the delta (Indian) variant, although still more than 90% effective in preventing serious illness. This may change as more data is analyzed from countries with high rates of vaccination.
- The rate of new coronavirus infections appears to now be increasing most quickly in Algeria, Bangladesh, Burma, Cambodia, Cuba, Cyprus, Fiji, Finland (despite its high level of vaccination), Greece, Guatemala, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, South Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Malaysia, Mexico, Mongolia, Panama, Russia, Senegal, South Africa, Spain, Tunisia, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, and the United Kingdom (despite its high level of vaccination).
Forex Today: FOMC Considering Earlier QE Tapering
Adam Lemon
Markets continue to see risk-off flow but US stocks are mostly holding up.