- Stock markets are generally strong but have sold off a little over the past day. The U.S. market indices remain firm and bullish, with the S&P 500 Index trading above the crucial 3000 level, its 200-day moving average, and also its 61.8% Fibonacci peak-to-trough retracement. Many market analysts think the bottom of this bear market has already been reached, but some analysts see further strong falls likely in stocks over the coming weeks and months. There is a strong divergence of opinion, but we are seeing the bullish case strengthen dramatically that the recent market crash is over.
- The U.S. Dollar is the strongest major currency today while the Australian Dollar and the British Pound are the weakest. The EUR/USD closed yesterday at a new 50-day high price, making higher prices likely over the week. The AUD/USD currency pair seems to have made a bearish double top at about 0.6950.
- WTI Crude Oil traded at new high of $38 per barrel yesterday before falling back somewhat.
- Coronavirus deaths in Latin America and the Caribbean are now 38% of the global daily total, which has begun to inch up again over recent days, well exceeding those in both the U.S.A. (24%) and Europe (approx. 21%) which shows that the epicenter of the pandemic is now in South America.
- Protests in the U.S. have continued for another night but the violence has died down. President Trump has threatened to use the armed forces to restore order but it seems clear this is not a credible threat.
- Daily reported coronavirus deaths hit an all-time high over last weekend. Daily deaths globally peaked on April 18th and daily new confirmed cases peaked on 30th May. Total confirmed new cases stand at over 6.5 million with an average case fatality rate of 5.93%. Both the total number of new cases and deaths continues to fall daily in the U.S.A. and almost everywhere in Europe outside Russia. Goldman Sachs forecast a 34% drop in U.S. Q2 annualized GDP and other analysts seeing a 30% unemployment rate in the near future. If correct, these will be the worst such numbers seen since the 1930s, but it should be noted many analysts continue to see a much better outlook for U.S. unemployment. The WTO has forecasted that global trade is set to fall by one third. The U.S. now sees an unemployment rate of 15% and a drop in 1st Q GDP of 5%. In recent weeks, more analysts have begun to forecast a faster economic recovery in the U.S. than had been expected.
- Brazil, followed by Mexico, is leading the new daily coronavirus death toll, with both countries overtaking the U.S.A.
- The rate of new coronavirus infections appears to be increasing most quickly in Brazil, India, Russia, Mexico, Peru, Pakistan, Chile, Qatar, and Egypt. Brazil has the second highest number of confirmed cases of any country, followed by Russia and then the U.K. More restrictions are being loosened in Europe, and despite India and Mexico’s strong growth in new cases, lockdown has been relaxed in these countries also.