- The rate of increase globally in fatalities and new confirmed infections from the coronavirus pandemic continues to increase exponentially, with its epicenter now located in New York. A world recession or possibly even depression appears to be inevitable, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a 34% drop in U.S. Q2 annualized GDP and other analysts seeing a 30% unemployment rate in the near future. If correct, these will be the worst such numbers seen since the 1930s, but it should be noted many analysts continue to see a much better outlook for U.S. unemployment. The WTO has forecasted that global trade is set to fall by one third.
- Despite the gloomy global economic outlook, stock markets (especially in the U.S.A.) are still rising, and other risky assets continue to rise. Major U.S. stock indices have regained half of the value lost during its recent fall from peak to low – exceeding this would be technically significant. Many analysts think the bottom of this bear market has already been reached, but other analysts see further strong falls likely in stocks over the coming weeks and months. There is a strong divergence of opinion.
- The rate of increase in new confirmed cases seems to have peaked in the hard-hit European nations of Italy and Spain, but deaths are still rising in France and Germany. Death rates (but not new infections) still seem to be increasing exponentially in the U.S.A. and in the U.K, with both nations suffer recently their highest daily death tolls yet. Some forecasters are starting to see the U.K. as likely to end this wave with the highest death toll in Europe. The strongest growth of the virus in the world now is happening in New York City and New York State, with the U.S.A. now leading the world in number of confirmed cases (more than half a million, more than one quarter of the global total), and having had more than 22,000 deaths so far. Even in Germany, the death rate to confirmed infections has risen to more than 2%. The U.S.A., Italy, Spain, France and Germany all have had over 100,000 confirmed cases.
- A few OECD nations appear to have dealt relatively well with this first wave of coronavirus infections, and are beginning to consider relaxing lockdown restrictions, especially Denmark and Austria.
- The price of Gold made a multi-year high close at the end of last week, suggesting that it will rise higher still during at least the early part of this week.
- WTI Crude Oil is falling again after news of an output deal between the major oil producers, following its recovery last week from its recent sharp fall to an 18-year low below $20.
- Currency markets are currently dominated by relative strength in the Japanese Yen, while the U.S. and Australian Dollars look weak over the short term..
- Markets have been affected by high relative volatility, but this is generally decreasing, although stocks are still showing high volatility.
- There are no high-impact economic data releases scheduled for today, with several countries still on public holidays for Easter.