Get the global market news and updates for Monday, March 30, 2020 here.
- The global coronavirus pandemic continues to increase exponentially from its epicenter in Europe and the U.S.A, with 40% of the world’s population now under lockdown restrictions which are causing very significant economic damage. A global recession appears to be inevitable, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a 23% drop in U.S. GDP. If correct, this will be the worst fall since the 1930s.
- The rate of increase in fatalities and new confirmed cases continues to grow in the epicenter of Western Europe with the exception of Italy, where it seems to be slowing down, providing hope that the lockdown is beginning to show results.
- The strongest growth of the virus in the world now is happening in New York City and New York State, with the U.S.A. now leading the world in number of confirmed cases. In Europe, the United Kingdom and France appear statistically to be on course for an Italian-style outcome, with Spain heading for something even worse.
- World stock markets, especially in the U.S.A., seem to have stabilized on confirmation of the passage of a $2 billion rescue package by the U.S. Congress. However, Dr. Fauci yesterday forecast there may be as many as 200,000 deaths from the virus in the U.S.A. as it becomes clear reopening for business after Easter is extremely unlikely to be an option.
- WTI Crude Oil is looking very weak and seems set to fall further and test its recent low prices.
- Currency markets appear to be consolidating and showing no clear direction today.
- Markets are affected by very high relative volatility, and plummeting consumer demand. This provides opportunities for traders, but close monitoring of trades on short time frames is very advisable due to the strength and speed of price movements.
- The key factor in markets today will likely be how the U.S. stock market moves when New York opens, as America begins to fully internalize the impact of the virus. If stocks fall again to exceed their recent lows, a truly catastrophic market crash could be triggered – but the evidence awaits