Weekly Economic and Political Timeline


Last week's trandings were affected by political turmoil in the United States, which could lead to the dismissal of Trump as US president if convicted. In addition, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson made the latest EU offer to avoid a no-deal Brexit, and the financial markets are waiting for the European response to Johnson's offer. In the same week, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is still racing in the pace of rate cuts to counter the negative consequences of the global trade war. The US employment figures began to show weakness and this was confirmed by the release of the ADP survey and the US Department of Labor report which reported lower-than-expected jobs, but that the country's unemployment rate fell to a 50-year low.

In the following lines we will review together the most important influencers on the currency market for this week:

Monday: The beginning will be with the anticipation of remarks by US Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell. Powell is scheduled to make brief remarks at an event in Salt Lake City. The US dollar is often very volatile during his speech as traders try to understand the direction of interest rates in the future.

Tuesday: Bank of England Governor Mark Carney's remarks. Mark Carney, in Tokyo, will speak about climate change at the Financial Disclosure Task Force Summit. The Pound is often very volatile during his comments as traders try to understand the direction of interest rates in the future.

In the same day. New remarks by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell is scheduled to deliver a speech titled "A Look from the Federal Reserve Board" at the annual meeting of the National Association of Business Economics in Denver. The US dollar is often very volatile during his speech as traders try to understand the direction of interest rates in the future.

Wednesday: US Crude Oil Inventories figures. In the US, crude oil inventories rose more than analysts expected during the week ending Sept. 27, according to data released by the Energy Information Administration. Crude oil inventories rose 3.1 million barrels to 422.6 million barrels, marking an increase for the third week in a row. Analysts had expected crude inventories to rise by 1.5 million barrels. Crude oil inventories rose by 2.4 million barrels in the previous week. Gasoline inventories fell 0.2 million barrels to 230 million barrels during the same period against analysts' expectations of an increase of 0.45 million barrels.

Remarks by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to participate in a panel discussion hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City at the Fed Listens event. The public expects to ask questions. As such, a strong move for the US dollar is expected. Investors are trying to find evidence of future interest rates.

In the same day. Content of the FOMC Meeting Minutes. The minutes of the recent FOMC meeting to set interest rates provide a detailed account of the insightful insights into the economic and financial conditions that have affected their voices. The contents of the minutes of the September meeting may provide some information regarding the difference of opinion within the world's most powerful central bank. The Fed decided to cut interest rates for the second month in a row and declined to say whether further cuts could be made in the near future. We did not notice the presence of three members who were against the decision taken by the majority. This suggests that the hawks are gaining more control or that the central bank has become concerned about developments around the world. The minutes are issued three weeks after the interest rate is announced and it is important to note that it is released for the purpose of conveying a message to traders and investors.

Thursday: UK GDP: In the UK, GDP grew 0.3 per cent in July, easing fears that the economy is sliding into recession. The stronger-than-expected reading came in the wake of Britain's recession last month. The data for August, the first with Boris Johnson as Britain's prime minister, will be announced. We should see whether the economy will continue to grow in line with upbeat employment data or suffer due to uncertainty about Brexit's future.

Forecast for August 2019: 0.0 percent growth.

Manufacturing production in the UK. Manufacturing output increased 0.3 percent in July, up from a 0.2 percent decline in June. The month's reading came in better than analysts' expectations for a 0.1 percent decline.

Forecasts for August 2019: 0.1 percent economic growth.

New loans in China: The People's Bank of China announces the value of all new Yuan-denominated loans issued to companies and consumers every month 11 days after the end of the month. Investors are looking to the release of this report because it helps them link borrowing and spending in a positive way. Consumers and businesses seek credit when they are confident of their future financial position and willing to spend money.

In the same day. Statements by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, is scheduled to speak at the event to launch the “£ 20 Banknote” in England. The Pound is often very volatile during his speech as traders try to understand the direction of future interest rates.

Minutes of Eurozone Monetary Policy Meeting. The European Central Bank issues monetary policy meeting accounts four weeks after the interest rate announcement. The report provides a detailed account of the recent ECB board meeting. In addition, it provides an insight into the economic conditions that have influenced their decision on setting interest rates.

US Consumer Price Index. In the US, consumer prices rose 0.10 percent month-on-month in August. Core inflation (excluding volatile items such as food and energy) rose 0.3 percent. Expectations for September 2019: CPI and Core CPI are expected to rise by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively.

Friday: Canadian job numbers. The Canadian economy succeeded in adding a total of 81,100 new jobs in August after dropping 24,200 thousand jobs the previous month. This month's reading beat analysts' expectations of 15,000 jobs. Employment increased in Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec (+20,000), Saskatchewan and New Brunswick. There were no additions or job losses in other states. Industrially, employment has increased in finance, insurance, rent, leasing and real estate; educational services; and the scientific, professional and technical services sectors. In contrast, companies, in addition to construction and other support services, reported job losses.

Mahmoud has been working fulltime in the Foreign Exchange markets for 12 years. Offers his analysis, articles and recommendations at the most renewed Arabic websites specialized in the global financial markets, and his experience gained a lot of interest among Arab traders. Works on providing technical analysis, market news, free signals and more with follow up for at least 12 hours a day, and aims to simplify forex trading and the concept of trading for his audience.