Pound Poised for Monthly Gain
The Pound Sterling is poised to see its largest single month's gains in more than 10 years, which analysts are attributing to the drastically reduced risk of a crash out of the EU coupled with a weaker greenback. Today, in fact, was to be the initial leave date for the Brexit but the EU leadership had granted yet another postponement while trade agreements are hammered out. In the US, the outlook for the dollar remains cautious after the Federal Reserve Bank lowered its benchmark rate yesterday and held open the possibility of more rate cuts in the future.
As of 11:13 am in London, the GBP/USD was trending higher at $1.2946, a gain of 0.3714% and off the session peak of $1.29556. The EUR/GBP was lower at 0.8627 Pence, a loss of 0.1724%; the pair has ranged from a trough of 0.86179 Pence to a peak of 0.86501 Pence in this trading session.
Likely Outcomes Considered
According to the latest data, for the month of October, Sterling has appreciated against the US Dollar by more than 5%; the last time the GBP/USD pair experienced a rise of similar proportions was in May 2009. Analysts who are studying the likely outcomes have said that the threat of a hard Brexit is at about 5%, while a decision to remain in the EU has risen to 20%; the more likely scenario is a brokered deal, which analysts give a 75% chance.