During trading on Monday, September 30, 2019, the financial markets will be interested in the release of economic calendar data, which usually results in changes in price movements - the economic calendar is a key tool for the fundamental analysis of news to predict the performance of the markets. Therefore, care must be taken until the actual results of those data are released to take the right trading decision. The economic news today are:
ANZ New Zealand Business Confidence: In New Zealand, the ANZ Business Confidence Index fell to -52.3 in August from -44.3 the previous month. The month reading was the lowest since April 2008, driven by increased domestic and global headwinds. Employment intentions fell to their lowest level since mid-2009 as companies announced their intentions to cut jobs, while the Activity Expectations Index and the Export Expectations Index became negative. Investment intentions and earnings outlook indicators fell further. Pricing intentions fell despite cost pressures and inflation expectations fell to their lowest level since late 2016. However, the capacity utilization index strengthened. Among the various sectors, indicators of commercial construction and residential buildings rose but remained in negative territory.
From China: Prior to a long public holiday, the official manufacturing PMI will be released. As the trade dispute with the US continues, the Chinese manufacturing sector continues to suffer below the 50 level that separates growth from the slowdown. The Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) will then be released, an independent survey, but also of significance. But it is still under the threat of the prolonged trade war with the United States.
The latest result indicated that manufacturing activity contracted for the fourth consecutive month amid growing trade tariffs with the US and slowing domestic demand. New orders and employment fell, while output growth slowed. Export orders fell for the 15th consecutive month and purchasing levels fell at the highest rate since February. Input prices fell to a seven-month low and production fees fell for the fourth consecutive month. Looking ahead, China's business sentiment fell to its lowest level since January.
Chinese Caixin PMI: In China, the Markit Economics Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in August from 49.9 in July. The reading for the month surpassed analysts' expectations of 49.8 and indicated strongest growth in the manufacturing sector since March. This was due to strong production growth over five months. Both employment and new orders remained broadly stable despite the fastest drop in export sales since November last year. Moreover, buying activity increased slightly for the second consecutive month. However, stocks of finished goods rose for the first time this year. Input costs have fallen at a faster pace since January 2016 due to widespread reports of raw material price reductions. Production fees also fell at the fastest rate since December 2015. Business sentiment weakened to the lowest level in Chain's history due to concerns over ongoing trade disputes between China and the US, and signs of a global economic slowdown.
British Current Account: In the UK, the current account gap widened to £ 30 billion in the March quarter of this year, from £ 23.7 billion in the previous quarter. The quarter reading was lower than analyst’s forecasts at £ 32bn deficit. This was by far the largest current account gap since the quarter of September 2016, with the trade deficit rising to a height of £ 20.3 billion from £9.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2018. The commodity gap increased to £ 47.0 billion from 36.9 in the previous period, the services surplus shrank to £ 26.8 billion from £ 27.5 billion in the fourth quarter. The secondary income gap rose to £ 6.6 billion from £ 5.9 billion in the previous period, but the basic income deficit fell to £ 3.2 billion from £ 8.4 billion.
Forecasts for June 2019: account deficit of £ 19.2 billion.
