The S&P 500 closed last week with the strongest gains in five years, even as markets wavered after Special Counsel Robert Mueller issued an indictment for 13 Russian nationals and three Russian companies that are believed to have participated in a scheme to interfere with the results of last year’s U.S. presidential election on behalf of Donald Trump. News of the indictment initially sent U.S. stock markets lower, but they rebounded fairly quickly on strong fundamentals and solid earnings reports. The Dow gained 4.25 percent last week, its strongest weekly gain since November 2016, while the S&P 500 gained 4.3 percent, its biggest weekly gain since January 2013. Still, the S&P 500 remains down nearly 5 percent from the record high it hit briefly last month. The Nasdaq closed 0.23 percent lower on Friday but still gained 5.31 percent for the week, its strongest weekly performance since December 2011.
A short-lived market correction earlier in February sparked by inflation fears brought out the bears in full force, but they went back into hibernation somewhat after the market reversed once again and global indexes rose steadily. In addition to solid earnings reports which continue to meet or beat expectations, analysts are pondering how President Trump’s tax cuts will impact the stock market, presumably to the upside, and how this will impact inflation.
According to data published by Thomson Reuters, earnings are expected to peak in Q3 at around 21.3 percent and to withdraw in Q4 to a growth rate near 17.8 percent. Usually when growth moves into negative territory volatility increases, which may make active stock management more popular than passive management, a move which can further fuel the cycle of volatility.
Volatility is expected to remain high in the coming weeks, and perhaps even for months which may be advantageous for traders looking to take profits. So far in February there have been eight days in which the S&P 500 moved more than 1 percent, while there were only eight such days in the entire 2017.