Today could turn out to be a big day in the U.S. economy. The weekly update on initial jobless claims is due out today and another early clue for manufacturing data in February via the Philly Fed’s regional numbers will also be posted. Later, the Conference Board updates the big-picture outlook with the January release of its Leading Economic Index.
Last week new unemployment filings showed an upbeat after months of being caught in a bearish pattern. Today’s news release could turn bullish and investors are eager to hear the details. They forecast a modest increase in the numbers, expecting an increase of 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 274,000 for the week through February 13. This would show that the numbers are slowly fading but not enough to push this leading indicator back into a bearish posture.
Indeed, short of a sharply higher number above 290,000 mark, it’s reasonable to interpret today’s data as signaling that the labor market will continue to expand.
Fed Manufacturing Data
Yesterday’s figures on industrial activity revealed a sharp rebound in output for January after several months of contraction. There is no consensus on whether this is a sign that manufacturing’s troubles are finally set to ease but meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s report on industrial activity for last month shows a solid rebound for the manufacturing component in January after contracting in each of the previous two months.
The US Leading Economic Indicator projects a lower tick for the second month in a row, posting another 0.2% decline, while modest growth coming in for the first quarter of the year.