The following are the most recent pieces of Forex fundamental analysis from around the world. The Forex fundamental analysis below covers the various currencies on the market and the most recent events, announcements, and global developments that affect the Forex market.
Forex Fundamental Analysis
Forex Fundamental Analysis
The Bank of England surprised few analysts by holding the UK interest rate at its record low level of 0.5% for another month. What may have been more unexpected was that the bank called a halt, at least for the time being, to its policy of “Quantitative Easing”.
Greece is a member of the 16 strong Eurogroup; the nations within the European Union that have chosen to abandon a national currency in favour of the Euro. To join this club, certain criteria had to be met and public spending and inflation need to be kept under control.
Many analysts had predicted that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would increase the cost of borrowing by a further quarter percentage point when its board met this week. Australia was the only developed nation not to slip into formal recession during the recent economic turmoil and it was the first country to increase the bank interest rates and has made three increases since October 2009.
The President of the United States revealed his government’s budget plans for 2011. Although the USA has formally left recession and is growing again, there is near universal agreement that the recovery is very weak and that there is still a significant risk of further job losses.
January started brightly, but concerns about banking reforms and the Chinese economy overheating have wiped away the gains. In Europe over the course of last week, the FTSE fell by 2.2%, closing at 5188.5 and retreating by 6.3% over the month; the CAC dropped by almost 1.9% closing at 3739.4 a loss of 7.3% for the month; the Dax shed 1.5%, ending the week at 5608.8 bleeding 7.1% of its value in January.
Speaking at a luncheon at the World Economic Forum which is underway in Davos, Switzerland, George Soros seemed to endorse President Obama’s view that banks must not be allowed to be too big to be permitted to fail.
The Bank of Japan has maintained its policy of low interest rates following a unanimous decision of the board. The board identified tackling the deflationary pressure that is bedevilling the Japanese economy as a critical challenge and is of the opinion that the Japanese economy is improving but that continued governmental support was needed to keep things on track. The board expects the economy to shrink by a further 2.5% this year, but this view is more optimistic than their earlier prediction of a 3.2% contraction.
As widely expected, the UK formally ended its longest recession since record keeping began in 1955 in the last quarter of 2009, figures just released reveal. The UK had languished in recession for six consecutive quarters, but managed to grow by just 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2009 which perhaps serves to underline the fragility of the recovery in the UK.
In a classic example of shutting the stable door once the horse has bolted (and possibly the wrong stable door at that) President Obama has announced his plans to change the banking sector to avert a future potential financial crisis such as the one we have been living through.
Friday capped a terrible week for the equity markets as it sent almost all markets negative for the year. President Obama's plan, to limit the risk that banks can assume sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeting. This announcement combined with China's new hard line stance on quantitative easing helped to send all equity markets lower on Friday. In the U.S, the DJIA closed down 216.90 points to 10,172.98
With concern over the potential overheating of the Chinese economy and Barack Obama’s plans to reform the banking sector, last week saw all of the major stock markets closing lower. In Europe, the FTSE fell by 2.8%, closing at 5303; the CAC dropped by almost 3.4% closing at 3820.8; the Dax shed 3.1%, ending the week at 5695.3.
The Euro has been trading at its lowest levels against both the US and UK currencies in five months. Analysts are concerned about possible knock-on effects that the dire straits of the Greek economy may have on the rest of the Eurogroup block (see Wednesday’s article).
The U.S Dollar came out swinging yesterday, surging .838 points on the DXY to close at 78.338. The Kiwi took it on the chin, giving up 1.86% as commodities sold off. The EUR was offered across the board for a 3rd day in a row as stops were blown out just below the 200 day MA. The EUR started the day just above 1.43 and finished down 2 big figures to 1.41.
The Eurogroup is the name given to the sixteen European Union Member States which decided to adopt the Euro as their currency. To a greater or lesser extent, their fates have become interlinked such that they have agreed to meet certain economic targets to avoid any loss of confidence in the currency which would have catastrophic consequences for the whole group.
Equity Markets in Asia finished lower yesterday on concerns that poorer than expected earnings in the U.S would spill over into next day trading. That did not occur as the both European and U.S session enjoyed substantial gains. The DJIA finished at 10,725.43, wiping out the prior day's losses as it picked up 115.78 points.