EUR/USD - 5 April 2009

by: FXSolution

EUR/USD adhered to a short-term uptrend support line this past week, as it recovered partially from a substantial drop the week before. This drop can be considered a pullback to the uptrend support line, which extends from the 1.2455 low hit on 3/4/2009.

When measuring this pullback, or dip, from a Fibonacci perspective, it represents almost precisely a 50% retracement of the bullish run from 1.2455 to 1.3736. Currently re-approaching a long-term downtrend resistance line extending from the double-top high of 1.6037 hit on 7/15/2008, price has recently been taking on somewhat of a bullish bias.

For the upcoming week of April 6-10, 2009, the main event to watch for would be any strong break and close above this long-term downtrend line which, with follow-through, should target further resistance around the last double-tested high of 1.3735. And any significant break above that level would confirm a bullish continuation of the new uptrend. To the downside, the noted short-term uptrend support line should continue to serve as dynamic support for the pair, at least for the near-term.