- The West Texas Intermediate crude oil or the US oil markets initially tried to rally during the trading session on Wednesday, but the $70 level has caused a bit of a headache.
- We pulled back from there to turn around and form a negative candlestick.
- This probably isn't too much of a surprise considering that the $70 level is a large round psychologically significant figure so there's probably a lot of options being traded there. Plus, it has also been both support and resistance in the past, so a little bit of market memory came into the picture as well.
- Underneath we have the $66.50 level offering and support followed by the $65 level which have been massively supported.
The Noise has Been a Bit Much
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Crude oil has been very noisy as of late, but there are a lot of concerns about demand. That just doesn't seem to be as much as the global economy is slowing down. All of this being said, it is worth noting that the Trump administration in the United States will almost certainly increase production and therefore add more supply to the mix. But on the other side of this equation, and this is one that might be a bit more immediate, the escalation in Ukraine is going to make some people nervous about Russian supply. Furthermore, let's not forget that the Middle East can go up in flames at any time as well.
So, with all of this being said, I do think we're closer to a bottom than a top, but a short term pullback does make a certain amount of sense. If we could break above the $70 level, it could open up a move to roughly $70.50 followed by $72. All things being equal, this is a range-bound but somewhat limp market. With this, I would focus on short term trading more than anything else, perhaps looking at smaller positions as well.
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