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USD/ZAR Analysis: A Slight Turn Lower After Speculative Surge Upwards

The USD/ZAR has started today’s trading in a tranquil mode after achieving a slight selloff, however a violent climb higher early on Friday serves as a reminder not all is calm.

USD/ZAR Analysis Today 22/04: Slight Dip After Surge (Chart)

  • The USD/ZAR is near the 19.08655 ratio as of this morning. A high was reached on early Friday around the 19.38900 vicinity.
  • From Tuesday onwards and throughout last week the USD/ZAR hovered mostly above the 19.00000 level.
  • Record high gold prices have not had any outward effect on the value of the USD/ZAR.
  • While it may look like a good result for the currency pair to have reversed lower from its apex values seen on Friday, the trading in the USD/ZAR is a reminder that financial institutions are nervous.

It would be easy to simply point at U.S inflation concerns and Federal Reserve rhetoric to justify the reasons for the USD/ZAR trading higher last week. And within a limited scope the reasons for the buying surge likely do have a lot to do with a stronger USD centric influence. Jerome Powell last week did say in a speech the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in the mid-term because U.S economic data remains uncertain. The USD/ZAR was trading near the 18.42670 mark on the 10th of April.

Concerns for USD/ZAR and Decisions about Outlook Happening

The USD/ZAR like all of Forex will move mostly according to factors via U.S data this week. More inflation numbers will come, but growth statistics will also be seen in the coming days from the States and the currency pair will react. However, the South African Rand also suffers from poor sentiment regarding its economic outlook domestically. The coming election in South Africa is also making financial institutions nervous.

While it is difficult to quantify the amount of nervous sentiment that is affecting the USD/ZAR because of uncertainty regarding the election results which will be seen in South Africa at the end of May, financial institutions are likely taking a negative viewpoint as a lack of clarity looms. The ability of the USD/ZAR to climb to the highs it reached on Friday around the 19.38900 was not a positive sign. In the short-term the barometer again is the 19.00000 ratio. Traders should continue to expect turbulence.

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USD/ZAR Support and Resistance as Volatility Lingers

  • Resistance in the USD/ZAR should be monitored today and tomorrow, if the 19.10000 level manages to push back value it may be a sign some sellers are aiming for the 19.07000 to 19.05000 ratios.
  • However, if the USD/ZAR climbs above and sustains value above the 19.10000 in the near-term, this could set up tests of higher levels again. Volatility has produced fast results in the currency pair and traders need to use quick hitting take profit orders to catch anticipated moves before reversals occur.

USD/ZAR Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 19.09700

Current Support: 19.07510

High Target: 19.15800

Low Target: 18.99930

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Robert Petrucci
About Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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