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WTI Crude Oil Weekly Forecast: Higher Sustained Prices Developing Strength

After penetrating the 80.000 USD price level on Thursday of last week WTI Crude Oil has shown sustained value and the coming days will be intriguing for speculators.

  • WTI Crude Oil will open trading within eyesight of the 81.000 USD price early Monday.
  • Last week’s trading saw the 80.000 mark penetrated and brushed to the side on early Thursday as speculators seemingly reacted to U.S Inventory data from the previous day, which showed a shortfall of over one million barrels.
  • The U.S and global production is solid, but the price of WTI has been showing a steady flirtation with higher prices since early February.

Crude Oil Weekly Forecast - 17/03: WTI above $80 (Graph)

The bullish trend in WTI not only passed the 80.000 USD mark on Thursday, but sustained its momentum without any volatile reversals lower. Since late in February, the 77.000 USD price has acted as rather durable support and did so again this past Tuesday and early on Wednesday. The ability of WTI Crude Oil to start marching upwards on Wednesday and then reach velocity on Thursday is noteworthy, particularly because the commodity held onto its momentum on Friday and finished the week near its highs.

WTI Crude Oil Trend and Coming Tests this Week

The last time WTI Crude Oil traded above the 80.000 USD mark was in early November, this occurred during a bearish trend in the commodity which went onto to produce a test of the 68.000 price on the 14th of December. While the bearish trend was occurring it should be noted on the 5th of October WTI Crude Oil was trading around the 82.000 ratio. This is important because it was two days before Hamas attacked Israel on the 7th of October.

WTI Crude Oil touched a high of nearly 95.000 USD on the 28th of September, meaning the low that was attained was two days before the Middle East Crisis renewed and that the 82.000 mark may have been viewed as equilibrium. Crude Oil went onto test a high around 90.000 USD on 18th and 19th of October as news from the Middle East caused plenty of noise and concerns among short-term traders and produced speculative opportunities also.

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Today’s Price Compared to Value in First Week of October

Intriguingly as the price of WTI Crude Oil is within sight of its values in the first week of October, before the Middle East tensions flared it opens the door to a test of perspectives. The bullish trend in Crude Oil since early this February has seen rather sustained momentum and support levels have risen. If WTI Crude Oil continues to trade closer to 81.000 USD early this week, instead of moving back towards the 80.000 mark this could be a bullish signal.

  • Supply of WTI Crude Oil remains strong, but the price of the commodity has been increasing rather well the past handful of weeks.
  • Short-term speculators should not get overly ambitious, and if they are looking for higher values they should strongly consider using take profit orders to cash out winnings before they vanish if reversals lower suddenly flourish.

 WTI Crude Oil Weekly Outlook:

Speculative price range for WTI Crude Oil is 78.600 to 83.700

Trading early this week will be a large barometer for risk appetite in WTI Crude Oil. A move above the 81.000 ratio which is sustained should be watched for and may create price velocity as large traders brace for the potential of additional speculative forces to be awoken in the commodity. Last week’s highs did flirt with the 81.650 value momentarily before reversing lower.

Risk management will be important in the days ahead in Crude Oil. The ability of bullish traders to push values higher has been demonstrated, but they will need to keep up their buying powers early this week to convince others to join the upwards momentum. If last week’s highs can be challenged and sustained and WTI Crude Oil remains near 81.500 this could create plenty of speculative fuel in the commodity. Stop losses need to be used and careful leverage practiced. While it may be tempting to look for higher price action, day traders should stay realistic regarding their wagers.

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Robert Petrucci
About Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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