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TRY/USD Turkish Lira Price Forecast: Decline in Turkey's Central Bank Foreign Currency Reserves

Decline in Central Bank Reserves. Buy TRY/USD at 31.00 with stop-loss at 30.85, sell at 31.25 with stop-loss at 31.35. Watch for economic updates.

Signals for the Lira Against the Dollar Today 

  • Risk 0.50%. 

TRY/USD Forecast Today - 26/02: Turkey's Reserves Decline (Graph)

Best Entry Points for Buying: 

  • Enter a buy order at the level of 31.00. 
  • Stop loss below support levels of 30.85. 
  • Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit as the price moves by 50 points. 

Close half of the contracts with a profit of 70 points and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 31.25. 

Best Entry Points for Selling 

  • Enter a sell order at levels of 31.25. 
  • Best points to place a stop loss is above resistance levels of 31.35. 
  • Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit as the price moves by 50 points. 
  • Close half of the contracts with a profit of 70 points and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels at 31.00. 

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    The dollar pair rose against the Turkish lira during European trading on Monday morning. Recently, the Turkish Central Bank set the interest rate unchanged at 45% last Thursday. Meanwhile, the lira was recording record levels of declines. On the data front, investors followed data issued by the Turkish Central Bank last week, which showed a decline in the bank’s total foreign exchange reserves by about $719 million, bringing the total to $134 billion and $208 million, in the week ending last February 16. 

    In other data, official data revealed a decline in the volume of deposits in the Turkish lira protected from foreign currency fluctuations from 2 trillion and 367.7 billion liras to 2 trillion and 343.2 billion liras. The new economic administration is working to get rid of these deposits gradually. 

    Meanwhile, investors followed statements by the Turkish Minister of Finance, Mehmet Şimşek, discussing opportunities for external financing for exporters, highlighting the approval by the World Bank's executive board of the "Turkish Green Export Project." Under this project, the Turkish Export and Import Bank will provide a 1-billion-euro loan, with the World Bank providing a 600 million euro guarantee and the Ministry of Treasury and Finance providing a 600-million-euro counter-guarantee. Moreover, the minister affirmed that this collaboration supports green transformation and exports. Also, he emphasized strategic control over domestic demand and redirecting resources towards more productive areas, contributing to achieving a suitable balance for the current account. The minister expressed optimism about the continued flow of loans and resources to support exporters. 

    TRYUSD technical Analysis and Expectations Today: 

    The pair rose during early trading this morning, as the price retested its all-time high at 31.19 liras. At the same time, the pair traded within a bullish price channel on the four-hour time frame shown on the chart. Also, the pair continued to trade above the 50 and 200 moving averages, crossing upwards, on most time frames, starting from the four-hour period and up to the weekly time frame, indicating the control of buyers. If the pair rises, it targets 31.25 and 31.50, respectively, while if the price declines, it targets 31.00 and 30.90, respectively. 

    Expectations for the price of the Turkish Lira is to the pair's continued rise, targeting levels of 31.50 Liras. Thus, every dip represents an opportunity to strengthen buy contracts. Please adhere to the recommended points and maintain capital management.  

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    Amir Issa
    About Amir Issa
    Economic editor , more than 12 years experience in the global financial markets and in the field of currency and metals trading. I supervised on many sites related to investment, finance and training in the field of forex and global exchanges.
     

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