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WTI Crude Oil: Weekly Forecast 1st January - 6th January

WTI Crude Oil went into this weekend near the 71.300 mark which was the week’s low essentially. Calm conditions in the Red and Arabian Seas the past week helped relax risk-averse traders and the price of WTI Crude Oil returned to lower levels it had traded the past month. The price of the commodity once again is near its lower mid and long-term technical ranges.

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    However, speculators will start this week of trading likely having seen another attack take place on a container ship this weekend in the Red Sea. The long holiday weekend might help ease fears before speculators return to their trading terminals on Tuesday, so it is questionable still what the ramifications will be for WTI Crude Oil when it begins trading this week. Holiday trading volumes will also factor into values the whole of this week, but if something outrageous were to take place in the Red Sea this would certainly factor into trading conditions no matter the date.

    Lower Prices Return after Brief Climb Higher

    The lower price of WTI Crude Oil which was produced last week was consistent. After reaching a high of nearly 76.120 USD on the 26th the price of the commodity stumbled lower in the following days. Early nervous buying may have been a factor following the long holiday weekend after Christmas. Speculators may believe the same type of effect could be in store on the 2nd of January after the long New Year’s weekend, but there are no guarantees. Day traders should be conservative as trading opens this week in WTI Crude Oil to get a feeling for where market sentiment is following the long weekend.

    • Once again light holiday trading will factor into WTI Crude Oil this week.
    • The commodity has returned to important support and trading early this week should be observed.

    Potential Range Trading in WTI Crude Oil this Week

    Due to the lower trading volumes and a lack of full volume until the 8th of December, traders who want to participate in WTI Crude Oil should be braced for the potential of quiet range trading being displayed. However, if support levels near the 71.000 falter in Crude Oil, a retest of December lows may be considered a possibility by speculators. If light trading conditions persist in the near-term selling pressure could spark a fresh challenge of lows below 70.000 USD.

    WTI Crude Oil Weekly Outlook:

    The speculative price range for WTI Crude Oil is 69.100 to 74.000 USD.  

    Trading in the commodity this week will be affected by behavioral sentiment regarding risk factors. If news flow from the Red Sea remains relatively quiet, WTI Crude Oil could certainly trade below the 70.000 USD mark once again. The ability of Crude Oil to incrementally move lower last week with light holiday trading at the forefront highlights that conditions remain calm in the minds of speculators. This could change in a hurry and day traders need to stay alert.

    WTI Crude Oil and the entire energy sector remain near lows. However, there are a couple of factors that could spark some speculative buying among larger traders – winter storms in North America and Middle East concerns. Light holiday trading will be a factor this week. If risk-adverse sentiment remains calm a test of lower prices may be seen, but speculators could look for reversals higher when the markets open this week. Volumes in WTI Crude Oil will make wagering on the commodity rather challenging this week and traders need to use proper risk management if they insist on pursuing positions in lightly traded markets.

    Crude Oil

    Robert Petrucci
    About Robert Petrucci
    Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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