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Crude Oil Forecast - Crude Oil Continues to Attempt to Discern Directionality

Crude Oil encountered resistance at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average and the $75 level just above. 

  • The crude oil markets continue to exhibit a consolidation pattern, reflecting a quest for clear direction.
  • Trading in oil remains a rather grind for traders.

WTI Crude Oil

Crude Oil Forecast Today - 22/01: Oil Seeks Clear Direction (Graph)

Looking specifically at the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Market, it attempted a modest rally during Friday's trading session. However, it encountered resistance at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average and the $75 level just above. This resistance comes as no surprise, given the significance of these price levels. Consequently, the market initiated an early-day pullback, emphasizing the importance of these hurdles.

In the event of a pullback, it appears likely that buyers will emerge sooner rather than later. The $71 level holds particular interest as it may provide sufficient support to trigger a rebound. The market currently finds itself in a substantial accumulation phase, positioned at the bottom of a longer-term consolidation. As such, there is a greater presence of buyers than sellers in this region, establishing it as a long-term market bottom.

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Brent Oil Forecast Today - 22/01: Oil Seeks Clear Direction (Graph)

Brent also shares a similar scenario, with a test of the 50-day EMA on Friday. Resistance is observed at the $80.50 level. Considering this, a buying opportunity around $76 or even $75 on a dip remains a viable strategy for Brent as well. The crude oil markets grapple with various challenges, primary among them being overproduction—a significant concern that looms over the market. This is a problem that isn’t going away at the moment.

Presently, global oil production exceeds demand by approximately three million barrels per day. Concurrently, shipping concerns have arisen, notably in the Red Sea, through which a substantial portion of the world's oil flows. Moreover, certain oil production in the United States has been halted temporarily due to refinery maintenance. In light of these factors, the pivotal question revolves around whether central banks can stimulate the economy sufficiently through interest rate cuts to revive oil demand.

Upon scrutinizing the charts, it becomes evident that the oil market is poised to remain within a range-bound pattern for the foreseeable future. As traders grapple with the complexities of overproduction, shipping disruptions, and economic stimulus efforts, the market's trajectory remains uncertain. In this environment, careful consideration of entry and exit points, along with a close eye on key support and resistance levels, is crucial for traders navigating the crude oil market.

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Christopher Lewis
About Christopher Lewis

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex for several years. He writes about Forex for many online publications, including his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy.


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