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The Australian dollar has rallied rather significantly during the course of this week and ended up challenging the crucial 0.65 level. The level could open up and move to the 0.66 level, which is where the 50-Week EMA currently resides. At this point, it certainly looks like we are trying to turn things around, but we have not cleared the last vestiges of resistance. So far, it just looks like we are threatening the top of the overall consolidation.
US Oil (WTI)
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market continues to move on the latest headlines coming out of Gaza, and of course the idea of whether or not the economy will support higher prices. After all, the jobs number was weaker than anticipated, and therefore it’s likely that we will see a lack of demand. All things being equal, if we turn around and recapture the 50-Week EMA, then it is likely that we could go to the $85 level. On the other hand, if we continue to draw from here, the $75 level comes in to reach.
Gold markets initially fell during the week, but then turned around to show signs of life. The $2000 level is an area that has been like a magnet and a brick wall for the market. If we were to break above the top of the campsite, then it’s possible that the market could go looking to the highs again. On the other hand, if we break down below the lows of the candlestick, then it is possible that we could go down to the $1950 level. In general, I believe that buyers will continue to jump into this market every time it dips.
The euro has rallied significantly during the course of the week to reach the 50-Week EMA. We are at the top of a bearish flag, so I would be interested to see if we can continue to go higher. If we do not, then we could drop down to the 1.05 level. Anything below there then drops market quite a bit from there. On the other hand, if we do turn around and take out the 50-Week EMA, then it’s possible that we could go to the 1.09 level above.
The US dollar initially tried to rally rather significantly, but then gave back gains later in the week. This was especially accelerated once the jobs number came out weaker than anticipated. The weekly candlestick ended up being a shooting star, so that suggests that we are going to draw from here. That being said, we have been essentially sideways for the last month or so, and therefore we are going to continue to see more sideways action than anything else. Short-term pullbacks will continue to attract attention for value hunters out there based on interest-rate differential.
The US dollar fell rather precipitously against the Canadian dollar, reaffirming the 1.38 region as massive resistance. Now that we have tested this area 3 times, it’s an obvious barrier that if we can finally break through it significantly, and perhaps even the 1.39 level, we could go much higher. On the other hand, if we continue to pull back from here, the 1.35 level is a very real possibility. In general, this is a market that is at the top of the overall trading range, and I think that continues to be a major factor.
The US dollar initially tried to rally against the Swiss franc, but collapsed later in the week as we continue to see a lot of volatility in Forex markets. We can break out the top of the candlestick for the week, it opens up the possibility of a move to the 0.9250 level. On the other hand, if we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the week, then we could go looking to the 0.88 level. Anything underneath there opens up the possibility of a move down to the 0.8650 level below.
The bitcoin market initially tried to rally during the course of the trading week, but then turned around to show signs of weakness near the $35,000 level, and at this point, the market is a little overextended, so pull back toward the $30,000 level is very possible. On the other hand, we break above the top of the candlestick, then we could open up the possibility of a move to the $40,000 level.