As we are in the midst of earnings season, the reality is that the market will be very volatile.
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The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has rallied a bit on Friday as we closed out the week, after testing the 200-Week EMA at the $75 level. All things being equal, this is the market that I think does have a real shot at turning around and showing signs of consolidation. If we were to break above the 50-Week EMA, then it’s possible that the market could go higher. On the other hand, if we break down below the $75 level, the market could drop down to $72.50 in that move.
The NASDAQ 100 rallied rather significantly during the week, breaking out significant resistance late in the week after seeing quite a bit of volatility. Because of this, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of buyers underneath, and therefore short-term pullbacks will be a nice buying opportunity. The 15,250 level underneath will be a barrier that a lot of people will be paying close attention to, and therefore it’s likely that it should have a certain amount of “market memory” in this area. As we are in the midst of earnings season, the reality is that the market will be very volatile.
The DAX rallied a bit during the week after initially pulling back, and now it looks like it is clearing the €15,300 level. All things being equal, this is a market that I think every time we see a pullback there will be buyers as it looks like we are trying to come back into the market to find some type of value. On the other hand, if we were to turn around and break down below the bottom of the previous week, the 200-Week EMA will be targeted. If we can break down below there, then the market will test the €14,000 level.
Rising during the trading week in the USD/JPY pair, it looks like we are trying to break above the previous candlestick, and of course the shooting star. With that being the case, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of volatility, but I think every time we pull back, it’s very likely that we will see value hunters coming back into the market, taking advantage of the interest rate differential as the Bank of Japan continues to see reason to keep monetary policy.
The US dollar has rallied against the Swiss franc during the course of the week. All things being equal, the 0.90 level is an area where we see a whole lot of The US dollar has been slightly positive during the course of the week against the major currencies in general, and the Swiss franc will not be any different. This is especially true considering that interest rate differentials continue to favor the greenback, and therefore it’s likely that we go higher over the longer term. If we can break above the shooting star from the previous week, that would be a very bullish sign. On the other hand, if we turn around and break down below the 0.878 level, then the market could drop.
The Bitcoin markets have rallied during the course of the week, and it looks like they are going to try to push the market to the $40,000 level. Any short-term pullback at this point in time looks like it’s going to attract a certain amount of attention, with support all the way down to the $32,000 level. Ultimately, this is a market that continues to see plenty of bullish pressure, but we are starting to get near an area that has a lot of volatility, in the form of the $40,000 level.
The British pound initially tried to rally, but then turned around to show signs of negativity. By the end of the week, we ended up jumping around in the parish flag that we have been trading in, and if we break down below the bottom of the uptrend in line of the flag, then it’s likely that we continue to go much lower, perhaps opening up a move down to the 1.20 level. After that, the 1.1850 level then becomes the next target. If we turn around a break above the candlestick for this past week, then it’s possible that we could go looking to the 1.25 handle.
The euro fell a bit against the US dollar during the trading week, as the 50-Week EMA has offered a significant resistance barrier. We are still in a parish flag, so it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out. If we drop from here, the market could go down to the 1.06 level below. Breaking down below there then opens up the possibility of a move down to the 1.05 level. On the other end, we break above this past week, then we could go looking to the 1.09 level.