Traders should be on the lookout for signs of exhaustion to start fading, or negative momentum to start shorting.
WTI Crude Oil (US Oil)
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has been slightly positive during the trading session on Thursday, but still looks as if it has a bit of negativity attached to it. Because of this, I think you’ve got a situation where the market is more likely than not going to continue to struggle, therefore I think you need to pay close attention to any signs of exhaustion in this neighborhood. The 50-Day EMA itself is of course an indicator that a lot of people pay attention to, so it’s worth noting that a certain amount of technical noise will be found there. Furthermore, you have to think about the fundamentals as well.
- As there are a lot of concerns around the world about global growth and global demand, it does make a certain amount of sense that oil will fall.
- After all, if we are going to head into a global recession, obviously you will have major issues when it comes to demand and therefore it’s likely that we drift towards the $70 level.
Brent (UK Oil)
Brent markets showed a slight rally during Thursday's trading session, but there is still a lot of noise in the market. As we approach the 50-day EMA, caution is warranted. If the market breaks down below the $75 level, there may be some psychological support at that level, but it could make sense to reach the $70 level after that. The $70 level is currently viewed as the market's floor, so anything below that would be very negative.
For rallies to occur, there needs to be a fundamental shift in the global economy, indicating a potential for crude oil to rise. At this point, the 50-day EMA is likely to be a short-term ceiling, and traders should be on the lookout for signs of exhaustion to start fading, or negative momentum to start shorting. It is important to consider both Forex technical indicators and fundamental factors to make informed trading decisions in the Brent market.
- The reality is at the moment, there is no real reason to think that the demand will continue to see some kind of sea change, so at this point the oil markets are going to continue to see downward pressure in general.
- The recession that is coming is something that cannot be ignored.