Bearish view
- Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6250.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6500.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 0.6450 and a take-profit at 0.6550.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6350.
The Australian dollar remained under pressure in the final part of last week even as other developed country currencies like sterling and euro crawled back. The AUD/USD price continued hovering near its two-year low ahead of the upcoming interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
RBA interest rate decision
The RBA will conclude its two-day monetary policy meeting on Tuesday morning. Futures data show that analysts expect that the bank will deliver another big rate hike of 0.50% as it continues to fight the soaring inflation. As a result, the yield of the 10-year Australian government bonds rose to a year-to-date high of 4.1% last week.
Analysts expect that the terminal rate will hike to about 4% this year. The decision comes after recent data showed that the country’s inflation has started easing in the past few months. According to the bureau of statistics, the headline CPI dropped from 7% in July to 6.8% in August.
Excluding the volatile food and energy products, inflation rose from 6.1% to 6.2%. Still, according to Michele Bullock, RBA’s Deputy Governor, these numbers will likely not influence this week’s decision.
The Australian dollar will also react to several important economic data from the US and Australia. On Tuesday, the statistics agency will publish the latest building approvals and private house approvals. Analysts expect that the housing market continued to deteriorate as interest rates surged. On Wednesday, the AUD/USD pair will react to the latest Australian retail sales data.
The most important figure will be America’s non-farm payrolls data that are scheduled for Friday of this week. Analysts expect these numbers to show that the labor market continued tightening in September. Another potential catalyst for the pair will be the upcoming OPEC meeting. According to Bloomberg, OPEC+ members are expected to cut supplies in a bid to boost prices.
AUD/USD forecast
The AUD/USD pair has been in a strong bearish trend in the past few weeks. It crashed to a two-year low of 0.6364 last week and then pulled back slightly. The pair is slightly below the first support of the standard pivot point. It has also moved below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands.
Therefore, the pair is still in a bearish trend considering it has moved below the 25-day moving average. As such, there is a possibility it will drop to 0.6250 ahead or after the RBA decision.
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